Fig. 2

Calibration accuracy evaluated by comparing observed and predicted events and standardised incidence ratios in a Portuguese cohort aged 40–79 years in primary prevention. A calibration analysis was conducted by using SIR, comparing the 10-year predicted event rate to the observed rate at 10- and 15-year follow-up. As all patients completed the 10-year follow-up, 10-year observed event rate was the actual rate. 15-year observed events were Kaplan–Meier adjusted. SIR, standardised incidence ratios, SCORE: Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation; PCE: pooled cohort equations