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Table 6 Comparison of performance of the HRnV model (based on leave-one-out cross-validation), HEART, TIMI, and GRACE scores in predicting 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE)

From: Heart rate n-variability (HRnV) and its application to risk stratification of chest pain patients in the emergency department

 

AUC (95% CI)

Cut-off

Sensitivity (95% CI)

Specificity (95% CI)

PPV (95% CI)

NPV (95% CI)

HRnV Model

0.888 (0.860–0.917)

0.3611a

77.3% (72.1–82.5%)

81.8% (78.5–85.0%)

65.6% (60.2–71.1%)

88.9% (86.1–91.6%)

–

0.0352

99.2% (98.1–100.0%)

39.6% (35.5–43.7%)

42.5% (38.5–46.6%)

99.1% (97.8–100.0%)

HEART

0.841 (0.808–0.874)

5a

78.9% (73.9–84.0%)

72.8% (69.1–76.5%)

56.7% (51.4–61.9%)

88.5% (85.5–91.4%)

–

3

99.6% (98.8–100.0%)

35.8% (31.8–39.8%)

41.1% (37.2–45.1%)

99.5% (98.5–100.0%)

TIMI

0.681 (0.639–0.723)

2a

63.6% (57.6–69.6%)

58.4% (54.3–62.5%)

40.8% (35.9–45.7%)

78.0% (74.0–82.1%)

–

0

98.4% (96.8–100.0%)

19.3% (16.0–22.7%)

35.5% (31.9–39.1%)

96.4% (92.9–99.9%)

GRACE

0.665 (0.623–0.707)

107a

64.0% (58.0–70.0%)

60.8% (56.7–64.9%)

42.4% (37.3–47.4%)

78.9% (75.0–82.8%)

–

60

98.8% (97.4–100.0%)

8.0% (5.8–10.3%)

32.6% (29.3–36.0%)

93.6% (86.6–100.0%)

  1. AUC Area under the curve, CI Confidence interval, PPV Positive predictive value, NPV Negative predictive value, HEART History, ECG, Age, Risk factors and Troponin, TIMI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction, GRACE Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events
  2. aOptimal cut-off values, defined as the points nearest to the upper-left corner on the ROC curves