Dynamic predictive accuracy of electrocardiographic biomarkers of sudden cardiac death within a survival framework: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Perez-Alday, Erick A.; Bender, Aron; German, David; Mukundan, Srini V.; Hamilton, Christopher; Thomas, Jason A.; Li-Pershing, Yin; Tereshchenko, Larisa G.

doi:10.1186/s12872-019-1234-9

Table 2 Calculated/predicted and observed two-sided 95% confidence interval width for a range of observed AUC values

From: Dynamic predictive accuracy of electrocardiographic biomarkers of sudden cardiac death within a survival framework: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

					Calculated / predicted			Observed
Time	N events	n non-events	ECG predictor	ROC AUC	95%CI width	Lower CI limit	Upper CI limit	ROC AUC	Lower CI limit	Upper CI limit
3 months	11	15,705	HR	0.809	0.311	0.654	0.964	0.809	0.493	0.963
			QTc	0.604	0.355	0.427	0.781	0.604	0.312	0.903
			QRS	0.506	0.343	0.335	0.677	0.506	0.162	0.817
			pQRST	0.473	0.335	0.306	0.640	0.473	0.135	0.807
			pSVGaz	0.363	0.293	0.216	0.510	0.363	0.143	0.594
			pSVGel	0.71	0.346	0.537	0.883	0.71	0.306	0.98
			pSVGmag	0.502	0.342	0.331	0.673	0.502	0.189	0.687
			aQRST	0.492	0.339	0.322	0.662	0.492	0.181	0.826
			aSVGaz	0.347	0.286	0.204	0.490	0.347	0.117	0.587
			aSVGel	0.688	0.350	0.513	0.863	0.688	0.261	0.974
			aSVGmag	0.562	0.352	0.386	0.738	0.562	0.159	0.8
			SAIQRST	0.534	0.346	0.360	0.708	0.534	0.196	0.812
6 months	16	15,700	HR	0.686	0.290	0.541	0.831	0.686	0.477	0.895
			QTc	0.656	0.293	0.509	0.803	0.656	0.385	0.923
			QRS	0.647	0.294	0.500	0.794	0.647	0.421	0.873
			pQRST	0.706	0.288	0.556	0.844	0.706	0.456	0.949
			pSVGaz	0.613	0.294	0.466	0.760	0.613	0.356	0.871
			pSVGel	0.699	0.288	0.556	0.844	0.699	0.514	0.883
			pSVGmag	0.5	0.283	0.358	0.642	0.5	0.236	0.765
			aQRST	0.713	0.286	0.570	0.856	0.713	0.466	0.957
			aSVGaz	0.53	0.289	0.390	0.678	0.53	0.237	0.824
			aSVGel	0.706	0.287	0.562	0.850	0.706	0.526	0.886
			aSVGmag	0.549	0.292	0.416	0.708	0.549	0.279	0.819
			SAIQRST	0.655	0.293	0.509	0.803	0.655	0.454	0.85
1 year	47	15,669	HR	0.598	0.172	0.512	0.684	0.598	0.461	0.737
			QTc	0.628	0.172	0.542	0.714	0.628	0.482	0.774
			QRS	0.698	0.168	0.614	0.784	0.698	0.563	0.833
			pQRST	0.721	0.166	0.638	0.805	0.721	0.58	0.862
			pSVGaz	0.633	0.172	0.547	0.719	0.633	0.477	0.79
			pSVGel	0.668	0.171	0.583	0.753	0.668	0.518	0.818
			pSVGmag	0.514	0.167	0.431	0.597	0.514	0.346	0.683
			aQRST	0.681	0.170	0.596	0.766	0.681	0.543	0.819
			aSVGaz	0.55	0.170	0.465	0.635	0.55	0.396	0.704
			aSVGel	0.652	0.171	0.566	0.738	0.652	0.531	0.774
			aSVGmag	0.55	0.170	0.465	0.635	0.55	0.373	0.726
			SAIQRST	0.661	0.171	0.576	0.746	0.661	0.515	0.807
2 years	84	15,632	HR	0.618	0.129	0.554	0.682	0.618	0.522	0.715
			QTc	0.625	0.129	0.561	0.689	0.625	0.528	0.722
			QRS	0.682	0.127	0.618	0.746	0.682	0.595	0.769
			pQRST	0.738	0.123	0.677	0.799	0.738	0.661	0.814
			pSVGaz	0.673	0.127	0.609	0.737	0.673	0.567	0.779
			pSVGel	0.64	0.128	0.576	0.704	0.64	0.549	0.731
			pSVGmag	0.503	0.124	0.441	0.565	0.503	0.399	0.608
			aQRST	0.689	0.127	0.626	0.752	0.689	0.602	0.776
			aSVGaz	0.611	0.129	0.547	0.675	0.611	0.504	0.717
			aSVGel	0.608	0.129	0.544	0.672	0.608	0.515	0.701
			aSVGmag	0.545	0.127	0.482	0.608	0.545	0.448	0.642
			SAIQRST	0.687	0.127	0.624	0.750	0.687	0.600	0.775
5 years	495	15,221	HR	0.581	0.053	0.554	0.608	0.581	0.508	0.654
			QTc	0.604	0.054	0.577	0.631	0.604	0.548	0.659
			QRS	0.681	0.053	0.655	0.717	0.681	0.62	0.743
			pQRST	0.715	0.052	0.689	0.741	0.715	0.652	0.779
			pSVGaz	0.646	0.053	0.619	0.673	0.646	0.572	0.72
			pSVGel	0.624	0.054	0.597	0.651	0.624	0.577	0.671
			pSVGmag	0.486	0.051	0.460	0.512	0.486	0.403	0.568
			aQRST	0.691	0.053	0.665	0.717	0.691	0.633	0.749
			aSVGaz	0.622	0.054	0.595	0.649	0.622	0.557	0.687
			aSVGel	0.612	0.054	0.585	0.639	0.612	0.549	0.675
			aSVGmag	0.512	0.052	0.486	0.538	0.512	0.444	0.581
			SAIQRST	0.657	0.053	0.630	0.684	0.657	0.594	0.72
> 5 years	320	15,396	HR	0.55	0.066	0.517	0.583	0.55	0.507	0.593
			QTc	0.577	0.066	0.544	0.610	0.577	0.532	0.622
			QRS	0.655	0.066	0.622	0.688	0.655	0.617	0.693
			pQRST	0.71	0.064	0.678	0.742	0.71	0.668	0.753
			pSVGaz	0.612	0.066	0.579	0.645	0.612	0.567	0.657
			pSVGel	0.602	0.066	0.567	0.633	0.602	0.561	0.643
			pSVGmag	0.491	0.064	0.459	0.523	0.491	0.444	0.537
			aQRST	0.675	0.066	0.642	0.708	0.675	0.636	0.714
			aSVGaz	0.587	0.066	0.554	0.610	0.587	0.544	0.629
			aSVGel	0.596	0.066	0.563	0.629	0.596	0.555	0.636
			aSVGmag	0.523	0.065	0.491	0.555	0.523	0.479	0.568
			SAIQRST	0.635	0.066	0.602	0.668	0.635	0.598	0.672

Back to article page

ISSN: 1471-2261

Contact us

Submission enquiries: bmccardiovasculardisorders@biomedcentral.com
General enquiries: ORSupport@springernature.com

BMC Cardiovascular Disorders

Contact us