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Table 2 The value of reducing the decision uncertainty surrounding the choice between either rivaroxaban (RVX) or vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in premenopausal women with atrial fibrillation in the Netherlands

From: Uncertainty on the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban in premenopausal women with atrial fibrillation: empirical evidence needed

  Per person Total population
Estimated chancea EVPIb Estimated number Population EVPIb
QALYs NMB QALYs NMB
Baseline agec
 20 yrs 10.5% 0.0849 €12,795 420 35.7 €5,373,900
 30 yrs 20% 0.0467 €8311 800 37.4 €6,648,800
 40 yrs 49% 0.0219 €4430 1960 42.9 €8,682,800
 50 yrs 20.5% 0.0076 €1710 820 6.2 €1,402,200
Total 100% 0.0305 €5527 4000 122.2 €22,107,700
  1. aRepresents the chance that the female patient with atrial fibrillation belongs to the respective age category
  2. bExpected value of perfect information, which equals the outcomes (in terms of QALYs or NMB) when making treatment decisions under perfect information, subtracted with the outcomes when making decisions under current uncertainty. The EVPI consequently also equals the maximum value of information that can be gained with further research
  3. cWe assumed that the probability of having suffered a previous stroke increases with age: 0.5% in women aged 20; 1% in women aged 30; 2% in women aged 40; and 5% in women aged 50 years