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Table 2 The value of reducing the decision uncertainty surrounding the choice between either rivaroxaban (RVX) or vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in premenopausal women with atrial fibrillation in the Netherlands

From: Uncertainty on the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban in premenopausal women with atrial fibrillation: empirical evidence needed

 

Per person

Total population

Estimated chancea

EVPIb

Estimated number

Population EVPIb

QALYs

NMB

QALYs

NMB

Baseline agec

 20 yrs

10.5%

0.0849

€12,795

420

35.7

€5,373,900

 30 yrs

20%

0.0467

€8311

800

37.4

€6,648,800

 40 yrs

49%

0.0219

€4430

1960

42.9

€8,682,800

 50 yrs

20.5%

0.0076

€1710

820

6.2

€1,402,200

Total

100%

0.0305

€5527

4000

122.2

€22,107,700

  1. aRepresents the chance that the female patient with atrial fibrillation belongs to the respective age category
  2. bExpected value of perfect information, which equals the outcomes (in terms of QALYs or NMB) when making treatment decisions under perfect information, subtracted with the outcomes when making decisions under current uncertainty. The EVPI consequently also equals the maximum value of information that can be gained with further research
  3. cWe assumed that the probability of having suffered a previous stroke increases with age: 0.5% in women aged 20; 1% in women aged 30; 2% in women aged 40; and 5% in women aged 50 years