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Table 3 Associations and predictive accuracies (95% CIs) for indicators of risk predicting disease incidence (age-adjusted models)

From: Validation of continuous clinical indices of cardiometabolic risk in a cohort of Australian adults

  CVD T2DM CM disease
  AUC TPR1 FPR2 OR AUC TPR1 FPR2 OR AUC TPR1 FPR2 OR
Men n = 1124 n = 934 n = 835
MetS 3 - 0.41 0.27 1.90 - 0.52 0.22 3.72 - 0.42 0.21 2.69
(0.32–0.50) (0.24–0.29) (1.31–2.78) (0.42–0.61) (0.20–0.25) (2.46–5.63) (0.34–0.50) (0.18–0.24) (1.86–3.89)
cCICR-Z 0.73 0.54 0.16 1.62 0.76 0.59 0.17 2.48 0.75 0.50 0.15 2.03
(0.69–0.77) (0.44–0.64) (0.08–0.24) (1.33–1.99) (0.71–0.81) (0.49–0.70) (0.11–0.23) (1.90–3.25) (0.71–0.79) (0.40–0.59) (0.10–0.20) (1.62–2.55)
cCICR-PCA 0.73 0.59 0.15 1.65 0.75 0.60 0.20 2.32 0.75 0.54 0.16 2.01
(0.69–0.78) (0.49–0.69) (0.09–0.22) (1.35–2.03) (0.71–0.80) (0.48–0.73) (0.16–0.25) (1.79–3.00) (0.71–0.79) (0.44–0.63) (0.12–0.20) (1.61–2.51)
F-CVD 0.73 0.55 0.16 2.45 - - - - 0.72 0.49 0.16 2.71
(0.69–0.77) (0.46–0.65) (0.10–0.22) (1.63–3.68) (0.68–0.77) (0.40–0.58) (0.11–0.22) (1.78–4.13)
F-T2DM - - - - 0.79 0.68 0.15 2.27 0.75 0.54 0.15 1.81
      (0.74–0.83) (0.57–0.79) (0.09–0.20) (1.84–2.80) (0.71–0.79) (0.45–0.64) (0.08–0.21) (1.51–2.16)
Women n = 1348 n = 1091 n = 1024
MetS 3 - 0.27 0.19 1.54 - 0.40 0.13 4.21 - 0.28 0.13 2.68
(0.19–0.36) (0.17–0.22) (1.01–2.35) (0.30–0.49) (0.11–0.16) (2.69–6.58) (0.21–0.34) (0.11–0.15) (1.80–3.99)
cCICR-Z 0.76 0.57 0.06 1.24 0.73 0.40 0.14 2.04 0.74 0.43 0.06 1.66
(0.71–0.80) (0.47–0.66) (0.03–0.09) (1.03–1.51) (0.68–0.79) (0.28–0.52) (0.09–0.19) (1.62–2.58) (0.69–0.78) (0.35–0.52) (0.03–0.09) (1.37–2.02)
cCICR–PCA 0.76 0.58 0.06 1.28 0.73 0.35 0.14 1.97 0.73 0.43 0.06 1.63
(0.72–0.80) (0.49–0.68) (0.02–0.09) (1.05–1.56) (0.67–0.78) (0.24–0.47) (0.09–0.19) (1.56–2.48) (0.69–0.78) (0.34–0.52) (0.04–0.09) (1.34–1.97)
F-CVD 0.76 0.56 0.08 1.59 - - - - 0.72 0.42 0.08 1.84
(0.72–0.80) (0.46–0.65) (0.05–0.10) (1.07–2.35) (0.67–0.76) (0.32–0.51) (0.05–0.11) (1.25–2.69)
F-T2DM - - - - 0.75 0.46 0.09 2.00 0.74 0.41 0.07 1.63
(0.70–0.81) (0.35–0.56) (0.05–0.14) (1.65–2.42) (0.70–0.78) (0.32–0.50) (0.04–0.11) (1.38–1.93)
  1. 1TPR with FPR fixed at MetS levels; 2FPR with TPR fixed at MetS levels; 3not age-adjusted.
  2. Abbreviations: CVD Cardiovascular disease, T2DM Type 2 diabetes, CM Cardiometabolic, AUC Area under the curve, TPR True positive rate, FPR False positive rate, OR Odds ratio, MetS Metabolic syndrome, cCICR-Z Continuous clinical index of cardiometabolic risk constructed as the mean of standardised risk scores, cCICR-PCA Continuous clinical index of cardiometabolic risk constructed using principal component analysis, F-CVD Framingham 10-year General CVD Risk Score, FT2DM Framingham 8-year Diabetes Risk Score.