Table 2 Odds ratios of covariates for primary endpoint in derivation cohort and model definitions (n = 1014)

Female gender

0.838 (0.576–1.221)

0.358

Age

0.993 (0.983–1.003)

0.183

Age ≥ 75 years

0.923 (0.576–1.478)

0.738

BMI (kg/m²)

Normal

0

1

Underweight

1.713 (0.970–3.024)

0.064

Overweight

0.810 (0.509–1.289)

0.375

Obese

0.651 (0.357–1.188)

0.162

GCS

1.875 (1.490–2.357)

< 0.001

Temperature

0

0.999

SBP

SBP < 90 mmHg

5.927 (2.75–12.762)

< 0.001

4.636 (1.881–11.426)

0.001

1.534

1

SBP ≥ 140 mmHg

1.403 (0.765–2.575)

0.274

0.943 (0.352–2.530)

0.908

HR (bpm)

70 ≤ HR < 110

0

1

HR < 55

1.17 (0.574–2.386)

0.666

55 ≤ HR < 70

0.848 (0.541–1.33)

0.473

110 ≤ HR < 159

2.142 (1.228–3.736)

0.007

RR (min⁻¹)

24 < RR ≤ 34

1.385 (0.631–3.041)

0.461

RR > 34

1

pH

0.322 (0.078–1.333)

0.118

PaO₂

60 < PaO₂ ≤ 70

0.580 (0.213–1.581)

0.287

55 < PaO₂ ≤ 60

1.181 (0.41–3.404)

0.758

PaO₂ ≤ 55

0.706 (0.191–2.614)

0.602

AB

AB < 22 mmol/l

2.017 (1.295–3.142)

0.002

AB > 28 mmol/l

1.975 (1.193–3.272)

0.008

Lactic acid > 2.1 mmol/l

3.047 (1.904–4.876)

< 0.001

Serum sodium < 136.1 mmol/l

2.530 (1.742–3.674)

< 0.001

Serum potassium

Hypokalemia

0.797 (0.497–1.277)

0.345

Hyperkalemia

4.55 (1.513–13.682)

0.007

WBC > 9.2 × 10⁹/L

6.036 (4.151–8.776)

 < 0.001

6.742 (3.719–12.223)

 < 0.001

1.908

2

Anemia

1.512 (1.052–2.174)

0.025

HCT ≤ 40.7%

1.96 (1.365–2.814)

< 0.001

2.915 (1.598–5.319)

< 0.001

1.070

1

TBIL > 34.2 μmol/l

3.037 (2.111–4.370)

< 0.001

5.929 (3.225–10.899)

< 0.001

1.780

2

SUA > 547.9 μmol/l

2.662 (1.850–3.830)

< 0.001

D-dimer > 0.92 mg/l

4.018 (2.651–6.090)

< 0.001

INR > 1.145

3.354 (2.195–5.124)

< 0.001

hs-TNI

1.041 (0.988–1.096)

0.136

LVEF

HFpEF

0

1

HFmrEF

0.548 (0.281–1.068)

0.077

HFrEF

0.936 (0.621–1.411)

0.752

PASP

PASP ≤ 30 mmHg

0

1

30 < PASP ≤ 50 mmHg

1.078 (0.671–1.732)

0.757

50 < PASP ≤ 70 mmHg

0.965 (0.602–1.547)

0.883

PASP > 70 mmHg

2.638 (1.381–5.039)

0.003

Pleural effusion

2.016 (1.408–2.887)

< 0.001

AF

0.830 (0.567–1.216)

0.34

BBB

0.756 (0.480–1.190)

0.227

eGFR (ml/min/1.73 m²)

eGFR ≥ 90

0

1

0

1

60 ≤ eGFR < 90

0.940 (0.502–1.760)

0.846

0.516 (0.217–1.226)

0.134

30 ≤ eGFR < 60

1.745 (1.014–3.003)

0.044

1.205 (0.555–2.615)

0.638

15 ≤ eGFR < 30

2.412 (1.210–4.808)

0.012

0.773 (0.251–2.378)

0.653

eGFR < 15

6.395 (2.23–18.334)

0.001

5.374 (1.116–25.881)

0.036

1.681

2

NT-proBNP (ng/ml)

NT-proBNP < 2171.3

0

1

0

1

2171.3 ≤ NT-proBNP < 4966.5

1.593 (0.724–3.505)

0.247

1.517 (0.583–3.949)

0.393

4966.5 ≤ NT-proBNP < 10,728.9

2.018 (0.943–4.320)

0.071

0.867 (0.324–2.320)

0.777

NT-proBNP ≥ 10,728.9

6.049 (3.03–12.073)

< 0.001

2.920 (1.188–7.179)

0.02

1.072

1