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Table 4 Multivariate models. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for predicting outcomes are shown

From: Natural history observations in moderate aortic stenosis

Variables All patients Patients without severe morbidities
Any death Any death/HF hospitalization Any death Any death/HF hospitalization
HR 95 % CI p value HR 95 % CI p value HR 95 % CI p value HR 95 % CI p value
Age (per 1-year) 1.04 1.03–1.05 < 0.001 1.03 1.02–1.05 < 0.001 1.05 1.04–1.06 < 0.001 1.04 1.03–1.05 < 0.001
BSA (per 1 kg/m2) 0.50 0.29–0.85 0.010 0.60 0.37–0.98 0.041
Occurrence of AVR* 0.77 0.49–1.19 0.237 1.00 0.63–1.57 0.986 0.86 0.54–1.36 0.510 0.89 0.55–1.45 0.643
NYHA II 1.39 1.09–1.76 0.007 1.37 1.10–1.70 0.005 1.37 1.06–1.78 0.016 1.29 1.02–1.64 0.034
NYHA III or IV 1.67 1.20–2.31 0.002 1.38 1.01–1.90 0.045 1.72 1.20–2.47 0.003 1.45 1.02–2.04 0.036
Stroke/TIA 1.44 1.14–1.83 0.002 1.32 1.05–1.66 0.016 1.58 1.22–2.03 < 0.001 1.37 1.07–1.75 0.012
Hypertension 1.41 1.10–1.82 0.007 1.35 1.03–1.78 0.031
Diabetes 1.25 1.01–1.54 0.039 1.24 1.02–1.52 0.030 1.26 1.01–1.57 0.040
Chronic lung disease 1.53 1.22–1.91 < 0.001 1.35 1.09–1.68 0.007 1.52 1.17–1.96 0.002 1.44 1.12–1.85 0.004
CKD stage ≥ III 1.43 1.16–1.77 0.001 1.24 1.00-1.53 0.046 1.41 1.12–1.78 0.003 1.33 1.06–1.67 0.014
Anemia 1.60 1.30–1.98 < 0.001 1.50 1.23–1.83 < 0.001 1.64 1.32–2.04 < 0.001 1.45 1.18–1.79 0.001
Liver cirrhosis 3.36 1.75–6.45 < 0.001 2.70 1.41–5.15 0.003 3.48 1.68–7.22 < 0.001 2.22 1.07–4.59 0.032
Dementia 1.85 1.31–2.61 < 0.001 1.77 1.27–2.46 0.001 1.98 1.33–2.95 < 0.001 1.59 1.07–2.35 0.022
Malignancy 11.75 6.89–20.06 < 0.001 7.57 4.50-12.73 < 0.001
Excessive frailty 2.38 1.51–3.76 < 0.001 2.90 1.85–4.56 < 0.001
LV ejection fraction (per 1 %) 0.98 0.98–0.99 0.001 0.98 0.97–0.99 < 0.001 0.98 0.97–0.99 0.002 0.97 0.97–0.98 < 0.001
Peak aortic velocity (per 1 m/s) 1.37 1.13–1.67 0.002 1.37 1.14–1.64 0.001 1.34 1.08–1.67 0.008 1.39 1.14–1.70 0.001
≥ moderate TR 1.47 1.13–1.92 0.005 1.32 1.01–1.72 0.041 1.47 1.09–1.98 0.012 1.43 1.08–1.91 0.014
≥ moderate RV dysfunction 2.58 1.61–4.16 < 0.001 2.03 1.27–3.24 0.003 2.59 1.46–4.60 0.001 1.73 1.00–2.99 0.051
  1. *AVR as a time-dependent variable. AVR, aortic valve replacement; BSA, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; CKD, chronic kidney disease; HF, heart failure; HR, hazard ratio; LV, left ventricular; NYHA, New York Heart Association; RV, right ventricular; SV, stroke volume; TIA, transient ischemic attack; TR, tricuspid regurgitation