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Table 3 Major adverse clinical events

From: Natural history observations in moderate aortic stenosis

All patients

Overall

N = 729

NYHA I

N = 306

NYHA II

N = 309

NYHA III or IV

N = 114

P

Any death

12.6 (11.4, 13.7)

7.9 (6.6, 9.2)

15.1 (13.1, 17.1)

25.2 (20.2, 30.3)

< 0.001

Heart failure hospitalization

6.7 (5.8, 7.6)

4.5 (3.4, 5.5)

7.9 (6.3, 9.4)

13.9 (9.8, 18.1)

0.014

Any death or heart failure hospitalization

16.3 (14.9, 17.7)

10.7 (9.2, 12.3)

19.5 (17.0, 22.0)

33.4 (26.9, 39.8)

< 0.001

Progression to severe aortic stenosis*

3.9 (3.1, 4.7)

4.3 (3.1, 5.5)

3.5 (2.3, 4.7)

3.2 (0.8, 5.5)

0.014

AVR

2.5 (1.9, 3.0)

3.0 (2.2, 3.9)

1.9 (1.2, 2.7)

1.9 (0.5, 3.4)

0.001

Any death, heart failure hospitalization, or AVR

18.4 (16.9, 20.0)

13.1 (11.3, 15.0)

21.1 (18.5, 23.7)

35.4 (28.7, 42.2)

< 0.001

Myocardial infarction

2.3 (1.8, 2.8)

1.5 (0.9, 2.1)

3.6 (2.5, 4.6)

1.3 (0.2, 2.5)

0.002

Stroke

2.0 (1.5, 2.5)

1.8 (1.2, 2.5)

2.1 (1.3, 2.8)

2.8 (1.0, 4.5)

0.824

Patients without severe morbidities

Overall

N = 639

NYHA I

N = 283

NYHA II

N = 267

NYHA III or IV

N = 89

P

Any death

10.8 (9.7, 12.0)

7.0 (5.8, 8.2)

13.0 (11.0, 14.9)

23.2 (17.8, 28.5)

< 0.001

Heart failure hospitalization

6.2 (5.4, 7.1)

4.4 (3.3, 5.4)

7.2 (5.7, 8.8)

13.6 (9.1, 18.1)

0.018

Any death or heart failure hospitalization

14.3 (13.0, 15.7)

9.8 (8.2, 11.3)

16.9 (14.6, 19.3)

30.7 (24.0, 37.5)

< 0.001

Progression to severe aortic stenosis

3.9 (3.0, 4.7)

4.4 (3.2, 5.6)

3.3 (2.1, 4.5)

3.2 (0.6, 5.7)

0.012

AVR

2.5 (1.9, 3.0)

3.1 (2.2, 3.9)

1.9 (1.1, 2.6)

2.0 (0.4, 3.6)

0.003

Any death, heart failure hospitalization, or AVR

16.4 (14.9, 17.9)

12.1 (10.4, 13.9)

18.5 (15.9, 21.0)

33.1 (25.9, 40.3)

< 0.001

Myocardial infarction

2.2 (1.7, 2.7)

1.4 (0.9, 2.0)

3.5 (2.5, 4.6)

1.3 (0.03, 2.6)

0.002

Stroke

2.0 (1.5, 2.5)

1.9 (1.2, 2.6)

1.9 (1.1, 2.6)

3.0 (1.0, 5.0)

0.657

  1. Rates are reported as events per 100 person-year follow-up with 95 % confidence intervals. *Overall, 517 patients (71 %) had echocardiography in follow-up. P value was calculated using the chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test. AVR, aortic valve replacement; NYHA, New York Heart Association