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Table 3 Major adverse clinical events

From: Natural history observations in moderate aortic stenosis

All patients Overall
N = 729
NYHA I
N = 306
NYHA II
N = 309
NYHA III or IV
N = 114
P
Any death 12.6 (11.4, 13.7) 7.9 (6.6, 9.2) 15.1 (13.1, 17.1) 25.2 (20.2, 30.3) < 0.001
Heart failure hospitalization 6.7 (5.8, 7.6) 4.5 (3.4, 5.5) 7.9 (6.3, 9.4) 13.9 (9.8, 18.1) 0.014
Any death or heart failure hospitalization 16.3 (14.9, 17.7) 10.7 (9.2, 12.3) 19.5 (17.0, 22.0) 33.4 (26.9, 39.8) < 0.001
Progression to severe aortic stenosis* 3.9 (3.1, 4.7) 4.3 (3.1, 5.5) 3.5 (2.3, 4.7) 3.2 (0.8, 5.5) 0.014
AVR 2.5 (1.9, 3.0) 3.0 (2.2, 3.9) 1.9 (1.2, 2.7) 1.9 (0.5, 3.4) 0.001
Any death, heart failure hospitalization, or AVR 18.4 (16.9, 20.0) 13.1 (11.3, 15.0) 21.1 (18.5, 23.7) 35.4 (28.7, 42.2) < 0.001
Myocardial infarction 2.3 (1.8, 2.8) 1.5 (0.9, 2.1) 3.6 (2.5, 4.6) 1.3 (0.2, 2.5) 0.002
Stroke 2.0 (1.5, 2.5) 1.8 (1.2, 2.5) 2.1 (1.3, 2.8) 2.8 (1.0, 4.5) 0.824
Patients without severe morbidities Overall
N = 639
NYHA I
N = 283
NYHA II
N = 267
NYHA III or IV
N = 89
P
Any death 10.8 (9.7, 12.0) 7.0 (5.8, 8.2) 13.0 (11.0, 14.9) 23.2 (17.8, 28.5) < 0.001
Heart failure hospitalization 6.2 (5.4, 7.1) 4.4 (3.3, 5.4) 7.2 (5.7, 8.8) 13.6 (9.1, 18.1) 0.018
Any death or heart failure hospitalization 14.3 (13.0, 15.7) 9.8 (8.2, 11.3) 16.9 (14.6, 19.3) 30.7 (24.0, 37.5) < 0.001
Progression to severe aortic stenosis 3.9 (3.0, 4.7) 4.4 (3.2, 5.6) 3.3 (2.1, 4.5) 3.2 (0.6, 5.7) 0.012
AVR 2.5 (1.9, 3.0) 3.1 (2.2, 3.9) 1.9 (1.1, 2.6) 2.0 (0.4, 3.6) 0.003
Any death, heart failure hospitalization, or AVR 16.4 (14.9, 17.9) 12.1 (10.4, 13.9) 18.5 (15.9, 21.0) 33.1 (25.9, 40.3) < 0.001
Myocardial infarction 2.2 (1.7, 2.7) 1.4 (0.9, 2.0) 3.5 (2.5, 4.6) 1.3 (0.03, 2.6) 0.002
Stroke 2.0 (1.5, 2.5) 1.9 (1.2, 2.6) 1.9 (1.1, 2.6) 3.0 (1.0, 5.0) 0.657
  1. Rates are reported as events per 100 person-year follow-up with 95 % confidence intervals. *Overall, 517 patients (71 %) had echocardiography in follow-up. P value was calculated using the chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test. AVR, aortic valve replacement; NYHA, New York Heart Association