| Categories of change in waist circumference (WC) (cm) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
loss > 5 cm | loss > 2.5 & ≤5 cm | loss or gain ≤2.5 cm | gain > 2.5 & ≤ 5 cm | gain > 5 cm | |||||
 | N | % | Deaths | % | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) |  | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) |
All | 6868 | 100.0 | 1315 | 100.0 | 1.03 (0.87–1.24) | 0.93 (0.78–1.10) | Ref | 0.95 (0.79–1.13) | ** 1.25 (1.06–1.46) |
By WC (1HE) | |||||||||
  < 80 cm | 3510 | 51.1 | 516 | 39.2 | 1.14 (0.82–1.57) | 1.00 (0.75–1.33) | Ref | 0.95 (0.73–1.23) | 1.07 (0.83–1.38) |
  ≥ 80 & ≤ 88 cm | 1868 | 27.2 | 392 | 29.8 | 1.26 (0.92–1.73) | 1.11 (0.81–1.51) | Ref | 0.78 (0.54–1.11) | 1.28 (0.96–1.71) |
  > 88 cm | 1490 | 21.7 | 407 | 31.0 | 0.80 (0.60–1.07) | 0.76 (0.55–1.03) | Ref | 1.06 (0.76–1.47) | ** 1.53 (1.11–2.11) |
By age (1HE) | |||||||||
  < 65 y | 5153 | 75.0 | 518 | 39.4 | 1.23 (0.92–1.64) | 1.07 (0.80–1.43) | Ref | 1.04 (0.80–1.36) | 1.10 (0.85–1.43) |
  ≥ 65 y | 1715 | 25.0 | 797 | 60.6 | 0.92 (0.74–1.15) | 0.83 (0.66–1.03) | Ref | 0.89 (0.70–1.12) | ** 1.35 (1.10–1.67) |
By smoking status (2HC) | |||||||||
 current | 545 | 7.9 | 127 | 9.7 | 1.30 (0.78–2.15) | 0.81 (0.44–1.51) | Ref | 1.26 (0.71–2.24) | 1.15 (0.64–2.07) |
 former | 2247 | 32.7 | 479 | 36.4 | 0.80 (0.60–1.08) | 0.79 (0.60–1.06) | Ref | ** 0.62 (0.45–0.86) | 1.14 (0.88–1.48) |
 never | 4076 | 59.3 | 709 | 53.9 | 1.15 (0.90–1.48) | 1.05 (0.83–1.33) | Ref | 1.13 (0.90–1.42) | * 1.32 (1.06–1.65) |
By BMI (1HE) | |||||||||
  ≥ 18.5 & < 25 | 3258 | 47.4 | 548 | 41.7 | 1.09 (0.82–1.43) | 0.91 (0.69–1.19) | Ref | 0.93 (0.71–1.20) | 1.27 (0.98–1.64) |
  ≥ 25 & < 30 | 2614 | 38.1 | 540 | 41.1 | 1.04 (0.79–1.38) | 1.00 (0.76–1.30) | Ref | 0.84 (0.62–1.13) | 1.23 (0.96–1.58) |
  ≥ 30 | 996 | 14.5 | 227 | 17.3 | 0.86 (0.57–1.32) | 0.82 (0.52–1.29) | Ref | 1.17 (0.78–1.75) | 1.31 (0.88–1.96) |
By physical activity (1HC) | |||||||||
 inactive | 1706 | 24.8 | 501 | 38.1 | 1.14 (0.86–1.51) | 0.97 (0.74–1.27) | Ref | 0.97 (0.72–1.30) | 1.06 (0.81–1.39) |
 mod inactive | 2278 | 33.2 | 420 | 31.9 | 1.15 (0.83–1.58) | 1.09 (0.79–1.50) | Ref | 1.11 (0.82–1.50) | ** 1.51 (1.14–2.00) |
 mod active | 1676 | 24.4 | 247 | 18.8 | 0.67 (0.43–1.03) | 0.74 (0.49–1.12) | Ref | 0.70 (0.47–1.03) | 1.14 (0.79–1.65) |
 active | 1208 | 17.6 | 147 | 11.2 | 1.15 (0.70–1.92) | 0.73 (0.42–1.27) | Ref | 0.92 (0.54–1.54) | 1.41 (0.86–2.32) |
By educational level (1HE) | |||||||||
 No qualifications | 2525 | 36.8 | 670 | 51.0 | 1.07 (0.84–1.38) | 0.88 (0.69–1.12) | Ref | 0.88 (0.68–1.12) | 1.20 (0.95–1.50) |
 O level and above | 4343 | 63.2 | 645 | 49.0 | 1.00 (0.78–1.29) | 0.99 (0.77–1.27) | Ref | 1.02 (0.80–1.31) | * 1.29 (1.03–1.63) |
By social class (1HE) | |||||||||
Non-manual | 4358 | 63.5 | 848 | 64.5 | 1.00 (0.80–1.26) | 0.99 (0.80–1.22) | Ref | 0.80 (0.64–1.01) | ** 1.30 (1.07–1.58) |
Manual | 2510 | 36.5 | 467 | 35.5 | 1.08 (0.81–1.44) | 0.81 (0.59–1.10) | Ref | 1.21 (0.92–1.59) | 1.14 (0.85–1.51) |
Menopausal status (2HC) | |||||||||
 Pre-menopausal | 429 | 6.2 | 9 | 0.7 | 0.00 (0.00 -) | 5.16 (0.75–35.62) | Ref | 0.00 (0.00 -) | 3.91 (0.61–24.96) |
 Early peri-menopausal (< 1 y) | 251 | 3.7 | 10 | 0.8 | 0.00 (0.00 -) | 0.38 (0.04–4.00) | Ref | 0.52 (0.09–2.90) | 0.77 (0.11–5.21) |
 Late peri-menopausal (1–5 y) | 1322 | 19.2 | 68 | 5.2 | * 2.39 (1.00–5.69) | 1.79 (0.81–3.98) | Ref | ** 2.84 (1.40–5.77) | 1.51 (0.69–3.32) |
 Post-menopausal (>  5 y) | 4866 | 70.9 | 1228 | 93.4 | 1.01 (0.84–1.21) | 0.89 (0.74–1.06) | Ref | 0.88 (0.74–1.06) | * 1.23 (1.04–1.45) |
Excluding early deaths | |||||||||
 Excluding deaths < 3 y | 6800 | 99.0 | 1247 | 94.8 | 1.02 (0.85–1.22) | 0.94 (0.78–1.12) | Ref | 0.96 (0.80–1.15) | ** 1.23 (1.04–1.33) |
 Excluding deaths < 5 y | 6713 | 97.7 | 1160 | 88.2 | 1.03 (0.86–1.2) | 0.94 (0.78–1.13) | Ref | 0.98 (0.82–1.18) | * 1.24 (1.04–1.48) |