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Table 4 Cox multivariable-adjusted HRs after 16 years of follow-up for all-cause mortality in 6868 women. Results are given for stratified variables by WC change category

From: Changes in waist circumference and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study

 

Categories of change in waist circumference (WC) (cm)

loss > 5 cm

loss > 2.5 & ≤5 cm

loss or gain ≤2.5 cm

gain > 2.5 & ≤ 5 cm

gain > 5 cm

 

N

%

Deaths

%

HR (95% CI)

HR (95% CI)

 

HR (95% CI)

HR (95% CI)

All

6868

100.0

1315

100.0

1.03 (0.87–1.24)

0.93 (0.78–1.10)

Ref

0.95 (0.79–1.13)

** 1.25 (1.06–1.46)

By WC (1HE)

  < 80 cm

3510

51.1

516

39.2

1.14 (0.82–1.57)

1.00 (0.75–1.33)

Ref

0.95 (0.73–1.23)

1.07 (0.83–1.38)

  ≥ 80 & ≤ 88 cm

1868

27.2

392

29.8

1.26 (0.92–1.73)

1.11 (0.81–1.51)

Ref

0.78 (0.54–1.11)

1.28 (0.96–1.71)

  > 88 cm

1490

21.7

407

31.0

0.80 (0.60–1.07)

0.76 (0.55–1.03)

Ref

1.06 (0.76–1.47)

** 1.53 (1.11–2.11)

By age (1HE)

  < 65 y

5153

75.0

518

39.4

1.23 (0.92–1.64)

1.07 (0.80–1.43)

Ref

1.04 (0.80–1.36)

1.10 (0.85–1.43)

  ≥ 65 y

1715

25.0

797

60.6

0.92 (0.74–1.15)

0.83 (0.66–1.03)

Ref

0.89 (0.70–1.12)

** 1.35 (1.10–1.67)

By smoking status (2HC)

 current

545

7.9

127

9.7

1.30 (0.78–2.15)

0.81 (0.44–1.51)

Ref

1.26 (0.71–2.24)

1.15 (0.64–2.07)

 former

2247

32.7

479

36.4

0.80 (0.60–1.08)

0.79 (0.60–1.06)

Ref

** 0.62 (0.45–0.86)

1.14 (0.88–1.48)

 never

4076

59.3

709

53.9

1.15 (0.90–1.48)

1.05 (0.83–1.33)

Ref

1.13 (0.90–1.42)

* 1.32 (1.06–1.65)

By BMI (1HE)

  ≥ 18.5 & < 25

3258

47.4

548

41.7

1.09 (0.82–1.43)

0.91 (0.69–1.19)

Ref

0.93 (0.71–1.20)

1.27 (0.98–1.64)

  ≥ 25 & < 30

2614

38.1

540

41.1

1.04 (0.79–1.38)

1.00 (0.76–1.30)

Ref

0.84 (0.62–1.13)

1.23 (0.96–1.58)

  ≥ 30

996

14.5

227

17.3

0.86 (0.57–1.32)

0.82 (0.52–1.29)

Ref

1.17 (0.78–1.75)

1.31 (0.88–1.96)

By physical activity (1HC)

 inactive

1706

24.8

501

38.1

1.14 (0.86–1.51)

0.97 (0.74–1.27)

Ref

0.97 (0.72–1.30)

1.06 (0.81–1.39)

 mod inactive

2278

33.2

420

31.9

1.15 (0.83–1.58)

1.09 (0.79–1.50)

Ref

1.11 (0.82–1.50)

** 1.51 (1.14–2.00)

 mod active

1676

24.4

247

18.8

0.67 (0.43–1.03)

0.74 (0.49–1.12)

Ref

0.70 (0.47–1.03)

1.14 (0.79–1.65)

 active

1208

17.6

147

11.2

1.15 (0.70–1.92)

0.73 (0.42–1.27)

Ref

0.92 (0.54–1.54)

1.41 (0.86–2.32)

By educational level (1HE)

 No qualifications

2525

36.8

670

51.0

1.07 (0.84–1.38)

0.88 (0.69–1.12)

Ref

0.88 (0.68–1.12)

1.20 (0.95–1.50)

 O level and above

4343

63.2

645

49.0

1.00 (0.78–1.29)

0.99 (0.77–1.27)

Ref

1.02 (0.80–1.31)

* 1.29 (1.03–1.63)

By social class (1HE)

Non-manual

4358

63.5

848

64.5

1.00 (0.80–1.26)

0.99 (0.80–1.22)

Ref

0.80 (0.64–1.01)

** 1.30 (1.07–1.58)

Manual

2510

36.5

467

35.5

1.08 (0.81–1.44)

0.81 (0.59–1.10)

Ref

1.21 (0.92–1.59)

1.14 (0.85–1.51)

Menopausal status (2HC)

 Pre-menopausal

429

6.2

9

0.7

0.00 (0.00 -)

5.16 (0.75–35.62)

Ref

0.00 (0.00 -)

3.91 (0.61–24.96)

 Early peri-menopausal (< 1 y)

251

3.7

10

0.8

0.00 (0.00 -)

0.38 (0.04–4.00)

Ref

0.52 (0.09–2.90)

0.77 (0.11–5.21)

 Late peri-menopausal (1–5 y)

1322

19.2

68

5.2

* 2.39 (1.00–5.69)

1.79 (0.81–3.98)

Ref

** 2.84 (1.40–5.77)

1.51 (0.69–3.32)

 Post-menopausal (>  5 y)

4866

70.9

1228

93.4

1.01 (0.84–1.21)

0.89 (0.74–1.06)

Ref

0.88 (0.74–1.06)

* 1.23 (1.04–1.45)

Excluding early deaths

 Excluding deaths < 3 y

6800

99.0

1247

94.8

1.02 (0.85–1.22)

0.94 (0.78–1.12)

Ref

0.96 (0.80–1.15)

** 1.23 (1.04–1.33)

 Excluding deaths < 5 y

6713

97.7

1160

88.2

1.03 (0.86–1.2)

0.94 (0.78–1.13)

Ref

0.98 (0.82–1.18)

* 1.24 (1.04–1.48)

  1. Adjusted for age, BMI, baseline WC, physical activity, smoking, educational level, social class, menopausal status and change in weight (except where the variable was used for stratification)
  2. ***p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05