Skip to main content

Table 4 Cox multivariable-adjusted HRs after 16 years of follow-up for all-cause mortality in 6868 women. Results are given for stratified variables by WC change category

From: Changes in waist circumference and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study

  Categories of change in waist circumference (WC) (cm)
loss > 5 cm loss > 2.5 & ≤5 cm loss or gain ≤2.5 cm gain > 2.5 & ≤ 5 cm gain > 5 cm
  N % Deaths % HR (95% CI) HR (95% CI)   HR (95% CI) HR (95% CI)
All 6868 100.0 1315 100.0 1.03 (0.87–1.24) 0.93 (0.78–1.10) Ref 0.95 (0.79–1.13) ** 1.25 (1.06–1.46)
By WC (1HE)
  < 80 cm 3510 51.1 516 39.2 1.14 (0.82–1.57) 1.00 (0.75–1.33) Ref 0.95 (0.73–1.23) 1.07 (0.83–1.38)
  ≥ 80 & ≤ 88 cm 1868 27.2 392 29.8 1.26 (0.92–1.73) 1.11 (0.81–1.51) Ref 0.78 (0.54–1.11) 1.28 (0.96–1.71)
  > 88 cm 1490 21.7 407 31.0 0.80 (0.60–1.07) 0.76 (0.55–1.03) Ref 1.06 (0.76–1.47) ** 1.53 (1.11–2.11)
By age (1HE)
  < 65 y 5153 75.0 518 39.4 1.23 (0.92–1.64) 1.07 (0.80–1.43) Ref 1.04 (0.80–1.36) 1.10 (0.85–1.43)
  ≥ 65 y 1715 25.0 797 60.6 0.92 (0.74–1.15) 0.83 (0.66–1.03) Ref 0.89 (0.70–1.12) ** 1.35 (1.10–1.67)
By smoking status (2HC)
 current 545 7.9 127 9.7 1.30 (0.78–2.15) 0.81 (0.44–1.51) Ref 1.26 (0.71–2.24) 1.15 (0.64–2.07)
 former 2247 32.7 479 36.4 0.80 (0.60–1.08) 0.79 (0.60–1.06) Ref ** 0.62 (0.45–0.86) 1.14 (0.88–1.48)
 never 4076 59.3 709 53.9 1.15 (0.90–1.48) 1.05 (0.83–1.33) Ref 1.13 (0.90–1.42) * 1.32 (1.06–1.65)
By BMI (1HE)
  ≥ 18.5 & < 25 3258 47.4 548 41.7 1.09 (0.82–1.43) 0.91 (0.69–1.19) Ref 0.93 (0.71–1.20) 1.27 (0.98–1.64)
  ≥ 25 & < 30 2614 38.1 540 41.1 1.04 (0.79–1.38) 1.00 (0.76–1.30) Ref 0.84 (0.62–1.13) 1.23 (0.96–1.58)
  ≥ 30 996 14.5 227 17.3 0.86 (0.57–1.32) 0.82 (0.52–1.29) Ref 1.17 (0.78–1.75) 1.31 (0.88–1.96)
By physical activity (1HC)
 inactive 1706 24.8 501 38.1 1.14 (0.86–1.51) 0.97 (0.74–1.27) Ref 0.97 (0.72–1.30) 1.06 (0.81–1.39)
 mod inactive 2278 33.2 420 31.9 1.15 (0.83–1.58) 1.09 (0.79–1.50) Ref 1.11 (0.82–1.50) ** 1.51 (1.14–2.00)
 mod active 1676 24.4 247 18.8 0.67 (0.43–1.03) 0.74 (0.49–1.12) Ref 0.70 (0.47–1.03) 1.14 (0.79–1.65)
 active 1208 17.6 147 11.2 1.15 (0.70–1.92) 0.73 (0.42–1.27) Ref 0.92 (0.54–1.54) 1.41 (0.86–2.32)
By educational level (1HE)
 No qualifications 2525 36.8 670 51.0 1.07 (0.84–1.38) 0.88 (0.69–1.12) Ref 0.88 (0.68–1.12) 1.20 (0.95–1.50)
 O level and above 4343 63.2 645 49.0 1.00 (0.78–1.29) 0.99 (0.77–1.27) Ref 1.02 (0.80–1.31) * 1.29 (1.03–1.63)
By social class (1HE)
Non-manual 4358 63.5 848 64.5 1.00 (0.80–1.26) 0.99 (0.80–1.22) Ref 0.80 (0.64–1.01) ** 1.30 (1.07–1.58)
Manual 2510 36.5 467 35.5 1.08 (0.81–1.44) 0.81 (0.59–1.10) Ref 1.21 (0.92–1.59) 1.14 (0.85–1.51)
Menopausal status (2HC)
 Pre-menopausal 429 6.2 9 0.7 0.00 (0.00 -) 5.16 (0.75–35.62) Ref 0.00 (0.00 -) 3.91 (0.61–24.96)
 Early peri-menopausal (< 1 y) 251 3.7 10 0.8 0.00 (0.00 -) 0.38 (0.04–4.00) Ref 0.52 (0.09–2.90) 0.77 (0.11–5.21)
 Late peri-menopausal (1–5 y) 1322 19.2 68 5.2 * 2.39 (1.00–5.69) 1.79 (0.81–3.98) Ref ** 2.84 (1.40–5.77) 1.51 (0.69–3.32)
 Post-menopausal (>  5 y) 4866 70.9 1228 93.4 1.01 (0.84–1.21) 0.89 (0.74–1.06) Ref 0.88 (0.74–1.06) * 1.23 (1.04–1.45)
Excluding early deaths
 Excluding deaths < 3 y 6800 99.0 1247 94.8 1.02 (0.85–1.22) 0.94 (0.78–1.12) Ref 0.96 (0.80–1.15) ** 1.23 (1.04–1.33)
 Excluding deaths < 5 y 6713 97.7 1160 88.2 1.03 (0.86–1.2) 0.94 (0.78–1.13) Ref 0.98 (0.82–1.18) * 1.24 (1.04–1.48)
  1. Adjusted for age, BMI, baseline WC, physical activity, smoking, educational level, social class, menopausal status and change in weight (except where the variable was used for stratification)
  2. ***p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05