| Categories of change in waist circumference (WC) (cm) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
loss > 5 cm | loss > 2.5 & ≤5 cm | loss or gain ≤2.5 cm | gain > 2.5 & ≤ 5 cm | gain > 5 cm | |||||
 | N | % | Deaths | % | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) |  | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) |
All | 5469 | 100.0 | 1551 | 100.0 | 0.93 (0.78–1.10) | 0.95 (0.80–1.12) | Ref | 1.15 (0.99–1.34) | *** 1.51 (1.29–1.75) |
By WC (1HE) | |||||||||
  < 94 cm | 2515 | 46.0 | 604 | 38.9 | 0.93 (0.67–1.28) | 1.20 (0.91–1.57) | Ref | 1.04 (0.81–1.32) | * 1.28 (1.02–1.61) |
  ≥ 94 & ≤ 102 cm | 1854 | 33.9 | 520 | 33.5 | 0.93 (0.69–1.24) | 0.79 (0.58–1.06) | Ref | * 1.34 (1.04–1.73) | *** 1.96 (1.50–2.55) |
  > 102 cm | 1100 | 20.1 | 427 | 27.5 | 0.89 (0.66–1.20) | 0.90 (0.67–1.21) | Ref | 1.20 (0.88–1.65) | * 1.42 (1.02–1.99) |
By age (1HE) | |||||||||
  < 65 y | 3882 | 71.0 | 573 | 36.9 | 0.99 (0.73–1.34) | 0.97 (0.73–1.29) | Ref | 1.22 (0.95–1.57) | *** 1.78 (1.40–2.26) |
  ≥ 65 y | 1587 | 29.0 | 978 | 63.1 | 0.91 (0.74–1.13) | 0.94 (0.77–1.15) | Ref | 1.14 (0.94–1.38) | ** 1.38 (1.13–1.68) |
By smoking status (2HC) | |||||||||
 current | 438 | 8.0 | 170 | 11.0 | 0.75 (0.45–1.23) | 0.98 (0.60–1.58) | Ref | 1.01 (0.61–1.68) | ** 2.11 (1.32–3.36) |
 former | 2970 | 54.3 | 983 | 63.4 | 0.91 (0.72–1.14) | 0.89 (0.72–1.10) | Ref | 1.15 (0.95–1.39) | *** 1.54 (1.28–1.87) |
 never | 2061 | 37.7 | 398 | 25.7 | 1.17 (0.84–1.63) | 1.08 (0.78–1.49) | Ref | 1.26 (0.93–1.70) | 1.22 (0.89–1.67) |
By BMI (1HE) | |||||||||
  ≥ 18.5 & < 25 | 1913 | 35.0 | 505 | 32.6 | 1.03 (0.75–1.41) | 0.94 (0.70–1.26) | Ref | 1.03 (0.79–1.34) | 1.29 (0.99–1.69) |
  ≥ 25 & < 30 | 2926 | 53.5 | 831 | 53.6 | 0.80 (0.63–1.02) | 0.94 (0.75–1.17) | Ref | 1.22 (0.99–1.50) | ***1.69 (1.37–2.08) |
  ≥ 30 | 630 | 11.5 | 215 | 13.9 | 1.26 (0.81–1.95) | 0.89 (0.56–1.42) | Ref | 1.38 (0.91–2.10) | 1.34 (0.88–2.04) |
By physical activity (1HC) | |||||||||
 inactive | 1444 | 26.4 | 545 | 35.1 | 0.91 (0.68–1.21) | 0.98 (0.74–1.30) | Ref | 1.21 (0.93–1.57) | *** 1.72 (1.34–2.22) |
 mod inactive | 1353 | 24.7 | 374 | 24.1 | 1.03 (0.72–1.49) | 1.08 (0.79–1.47) | Ref | 1.14 (0.82–1.58) | * 1.47 (1.07–2.03) |
 mod active | 1377 | 25.2 | 336 | 21.7 | 0.86 (0.59–1.23 | 0.69 (0.47–1.01) | Ref | 0.95 (0.69–1.30) | 1.19 (0.86–1.65) |
 active | 1295 | 23.7 | 296 | 19.1 | 0.88 (0.57–1.33) | 1.01 (0.69–1.49) | Ref | 1.22 (0.87–1.70) | * 1.50 (1.06–2.12) |
By educational level (1HE) | |||||||||
 No qualifications | 1444 | 26.4 | 537 | 34.6 | 0.90 (0.68–1.20) | 1.03 (0.78–1.36) | Ref | 0.90 (0.68–1.19) | *** 1.76 (1.36–2.28) |
 O level and above | 4025 | 73.6 | 1014 | 65.4 | 0.96 (0.77–1.19) | 0.90 (0.73–1.11) | Ref | ** 1.29 (1.08–1.55) | ** 1.38 (1.14–1.67) |
By social class (1HE) | |||||||||
 Non-manual | 3395 | 62.1 | 932 | 60.1 | 1.03 (0.82–1.29) | 0.90 (0.73–1.11) | Ref | 1.12 (0.92–1.37) | ** 1.39 (1.14–1.69) |
 Manual | 2074 | 37.9 | 619 | 39.9 | 0.81 (0.62–1.06) | 1.04 (0.80–1.35) | Ref | 1.17 (0.92–1.49) | *** 1.67 (1.31–2.13) |
Excluding early deaths | |||||||||
 Excluding deaths < 3 y | 5347 | 97.8 | 1429 | 92.1 | 0.90 (0.75–1.08) | 0.94 (0.79–1.12) | Ref | 1.16 (0.99–1.35) | *** 1.52 (1.29–1.78) |
 Excluding deaths < 5 y | 5211 | 95.3 | 1293 | 83.4 | 0.94 (0.78–1.14) | 0.94 (0.79–1.13) | Ref | 1.13 (0.96–1.34) | *** 1.45 (1.23–1.72) |