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Table 3 Cox multivariable-adjusted HRs after 16 years of follow-up for all-cause mortality in 5469 men. Results are given for stratified variables by WC change category

From: Changes in waist circumference and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study

 

Categories of change in waist circumference (WC) (cm)

loss > 5 cm

loss > 2.5 & ≤5 cm

loss or gain ≤2.5 cm

gain > 2.5 & ≤ 5 cm

gain > 5 cm

 

N

%

Deaths

%

HR (95% CI)

HR (95% CI)

 

HR (95% CI)

HR (95% CI)

All

5469

100.0

1551

100.0

0.93 (0.78–1.10)

0.95 (0.80–1.12)

Ref

1.15 (0.99–1.34)

*** 1.51 (1.29–1.75)

By WC (1HE)

  < 94 cm

2515

46.0

604

38.9

0.93 (0.67–1.28)

1.20 (0.91–1.57)

Ref

1.04 (0.81–1.32)

* 1.28 (1.02–1.61)

  ≥ 94 & ≤ 102 cm

1854

33.9

520

33.5

0.93 (0.69–1.24)

0.79 (0.58–1.06)

Ref

* 1.34 (1.04–1.73)

*** 1.96 (1.50–2.55)

  > 102 cm

1100

20.1

427

27.5

0.89 (0.66–1.20)

0.90 (0.67–1.21)

Ref

1.20 (0.88–1.65)

* 1.42 (1.02–1.99)

By age (1HE)

  < 65 y

3882

71.0

573

36.9

0.99 (0.73–1.34)

0.97 (0.73–1.29)

Ref

1.22 (0.95–1.57)

*** 1.78 (1.40–2.26)

  ≥ 65 y

1587

29.0

978

63.1

0.91 (0.74–1.13)

0.94 (0.77–1.15)

Ref

1.14 (0.94–1.38)

** 1.38 (1.13–1.68)

By smoking status (2HC)

 current

438

8.0

170

11.0

0.75 (0.45–1.23)

0.98 (0.60–1.58)

Ref

1.01 (0.61–1.68)

** 2.11 (1.32–3.36)

 former

2970

54.3

983

63.4

0.91 (0.72–1.14)

0.89 (0.72–1.10)

Ref

1.15 (0.95–1.39)

*** 1.54 (1.28–1.87)

 never

2061

37.7

398

25.7

1.17 (0.84–1.63)

1.08 (0.78–1.49)

Ref

1.26 (0.93–1.70)

1.22 (0.89–1.67)

By BMI (1HE)

  ≥ 18.5 & < 25

1913

35.0

505

32.6

1.03 (0.75–1.41)

0.94 (0.70–1.26)

Ref

1.03 (0.79–1.34)

1.29 (0.99–1.69)

  ≥ 25 & < 30

2926

53.5

831

53.6

0.80 (0.63–1.02)

0.94 (0.75–1.17)

Ref

1.22 (0.99–1.50)

***1.69 (1.37–2.08)

  ≥ 30

630

11.5

215

13.9

1.26 (0.81–1.95)

0.89 (0.56–1.42)

Ref

1.38 (0.91–2.10)

1.34 (0.88–2.04)

By physical activity (1HC)

 inactive

1444

26.4

545

35.1

0.91 (0.68–1.21)

0.98 (0.74–1.30)

Ref

1.21 (0.93–1.57)

*** 1.72 (1.34–2.22)

 mod inactive

1353

24.7

374

24.1

1.03 (0.72–1.49)

1.08 (0.79–1.47)

Ref

1.14 (0.82–1.58)

* 1.47 (1.07–2.03)

 mod active

1377

25.2

336

21.7

0.86 (0.59–1.23

0.69 (0.47–1.01)

Ref

0.95 (0.69–1.30)

1.19 (0.86–1.65)

 active

1295

23.7

296

19.1

0.88 (0.57–1.33)

1.01 (0.69–1.49)

Ref

1.22 (0.87–1.70)

* 1.50 (1.06–2.12)

By educational level (1HE)

 No qualifications

1444

26.4

537

34.6

0.90 (0.68–1.20)

1.03 (0.78–1.36)

Ref

0.90 (0.68–1.19)

*** 1.76 (1.36–2.28)

 O level and above

4025

73.6

1014

65.4

0.96 (0.77–1.19)

0.90 (0.73–1.11)

Ref

** 1.29 (1.08–1.55)

** 1.38 (1.14–1.67)

By social class (1HE)

 Non-manual

3395

62.1

932

60.1

1.03 (0.82–1.29)

0.90 (0.73–1.11)

Ref

1.12 (0.92–1.37)

** 1.39 (1.14–1.69)

 Manual

2074

37.9

619

39.9

0.81 (0.62–1.06)

1.04 (0.80–1.35)

Ref

1.17 (0.92–1.49)

*** 1.67 (1.31–2.13)

Excluding early deaths

 Excluding deaths < 3 y

5347

97.8

1429

92.1

0.90 (0.75–1.08)

0.94 (0.79–1.12)

Ref

1.16 (0.99–1.35)

*** 1.52 (1.29–1.78)

 Excluding deaths < 5 y

5211

95.3

1293

83.4

0.94 (0.78–1.14)

0.94 (0.79–1.13)

Ref

1.13 (0.96–1.34)

*** 1.45 (1.23–1.72)

  1. Adjusted for age, BMI, baseline WC, physical activity, smoking, educational level, social class and change in weight (except where the variable was used for stratification)
  2. ***p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05