Skip to main content

Table 3 Cox multivariable-adjusted HRs after 16 years of follow-up for all-cause mortality in 5469 men. Results are given for stratified variables by WC change category

From: Changes in waist circumference and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study

  Categories of change in waist circumference (WC) (cm)
loss > 5 cm loss > 2.5 & ≤5 cm loss or gain ≤2.5 cm gain > 2.5 & ≤ 5 cm gain > 5 cm
  N % Deaths % HR (95% CI) HR (95% CI)   HR (95% CI) HR (95% CI)
All 5469 100.0 1551 100.0 0.93 (0.78–1.10) 0.95 (0.80–1.12) Ref 1.15 (0.99–1.34) *** 1.51 (1.29–1.75)
By WC (1HE)
  < 94 cm 2515 46.0 604 38.9 0.93 (0.67–1.28) 1.20 (0.91–1.57) Ref 1.04 (0.81–1.32) * 1.28 (1.02–1.61)
  ≥ 94 & ≤ 102 cm 1854 33.9 520 33.5 0.93 (0.69–1.24) 0.79 (0.58–1.06) Ref * 1.34 (1.04–1.73) *** 1.96 (1.50–2.55)
  > 102 cm 1100 20.1 427 27.5 0.89 (0.66–1.20) 0.90 (0.67–1.21) Ref 1.20 (0.88–1.65) * 1.42 (1.02–1.99)
By age (1HE)
  < 65 y 3882 71.0 573 36.9 0.99 (0.73–1.34) 0.97 (0.73–1.29) Ref 1.22 (0.95–1.57) *** 1.78 (1.40–2.26)
  ≥ 65 y 1587 29.0 978 63.1 0.91 (0.74–1.13) 0.94 (0.77–1.15) Ref 1.14 (0.94–1.38) ** 1.38 (1.13–1.68)
By smoking status (2HC)
 current 438 8.0 170 11.0 0.75 (0.45–1.23) 0.98 (0.60–1.58) Ref 1.01 (0.61–1.68) ** 2.11 (1.32–3.36)
 former 2970 54.3 983 63.4 0.91 (0.72–1.14) 0.89 (0.72–1.10) Ref 1.15 (0.95–1.39) *** 1.54 (1.28–1.87)
 never 2061 37.7 398 25.7 1.17 (0.84–1.63) 1.08 (0.78–1.49) Ref 1.26 (0.93–1.70) 1.22 (0.89–1.67)
By BMI (1HE)
  ≥ 18.5 & < 25 1913 35.0 505 32.6 1.03 (0.75–1.41) 0.94 (0.70–1.26) Ref 1.03 (0.79–1.34) 1.29 (0.99–1.69)
  ≥ 25 & < 30 2926 53.5 831 53.6 0.80 (0.63–1.02) 0.94 (0.75–1.17) Ref 1.22 (0.99–1.50) ***1.69 (1.37–2.08)
  ≥ 30 630 11.5 215 13.9 1.26 (0.81–1.95) 0.89 (0.56–1.42) Ref 1.38 (0.91–2.10) 1.34 (0.88–2.04)
By physical activity (1HC)
 inactive 1444 26.4 545 35.1 0.91 (0.68–1.21) 0.98 (0.74–1.30) Ref 1.21 (0.93–1.57) *** 1.72 (1.34–2.22)
 mod inactive 1353 24.7 374 24.1 1.03 (0.72–1.49) 1.08 (0.79–1.47) Ref 1.14 (0.82–1.58) * 1.47 (1.07–2.03)
 mod active 1377 25.2 336 21.7 0.86 (0.59–1.23 0.69 (0.47–1.01) Ref 0.95 (0.69–1.30) 1.19 (0.86–1.65)
 active 1295 23.7 296 19.1 0.88 (0.57–1.33) 1.01 (0.69–1.49) Ref 1.22 (0.87–1.70) * 1.50 (1.06–2.12)
By educational level (1HE)
 No qualifications 1444 26.4 537 34.6 0.90 (0.68–1.20) 1.03 (0.78–1.36) Ref 0.90 (0.68–1.19) *** 1.76 (1.36–2.28)
 O level and above 4025 73.6 1014 65.4 0.96 (0.77–1.19) 0.90 (0.73–1.11) Ref ** 1.29 (1.08–1.55) ** 1.38 (1.14–1.67)
By social class (1HE)
 Non-manual 3395 62.1 932 60.1 1.03 (0.82–1.29) 0.90 (0.73–1.11) Ref 1.12 (0.92–1.37) ** 1.39 (1.14–1.69)
 Manual 2074 37.9 619 39.9 0.81 (0.62–1.06) 1.04 (0.80–1.35) Ref 1.17 (0.92–1.49) *** 1.67 (1.31–2.13)
Excluding early deaths
 Excluding deaths < 3 y 5347 97.8 1429 92.1 0.90 (0.75–1.08) 0.94 (0.79–1.12) Ref 1.16 (0.99–1.35) *** 1.52 (1.29–1.78)
 Excluding deaths < 5 y 5211 95.3 1293 83.4 0.94 (0.78–1.14) 0.94 (0.79–1.13) Ref 1.13 (0.96–1.34) *** 1.45 (1.23–1.72)
  1. Adjusted for age, BMI, baseline WC, physical activity, smoking, educational level, social class and change in weight (except where the variable was used for stratification)
  2. ***p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05