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Table 2 Associations between total and CVD mortality in 5469 men and 6868 women and categories of change in waist circumference

From: Changes in waist circumference and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study

  Categories of change in waist circumference (WC) (cm)
Loss > 5 cm Loss > 2.5 and ≤ 5 cm Loss or gain ≤2.5 cm Gain > 2.5 and ≤ 5 cm Gain > 5 cm
Men, N (%) 641 (11.7) 656 (12.0) 2211 (40.4) 926 (16.9) 1035 (18.9)
All-cause mortality
 Number of events 218 (34.0) 196 (29.9) 585 (26.5) 246 (26.6) 306 (29.5)
 Model 1 ** 1.28 (1.09–1.49) 1.07 (0.91–1.26) Ref 1.04 (0.90–1.21) * 1.19 (1.03–1.36)
 Model 2 1.14 (0.97–1.34) 1.03 (0.87–1.21) Ref 1.06 (0.91–1.23) ** 1.26 (1.10–1.46)
 Model 3 0.93 (0.78–1.10) 0.95 (0.80–1.12) Ref 1.15 (0.99–1.34) *** 1.51 (1.29–1.75)
CVD mortality
 Number of events 64 (10.0) 62 (9.4) 153 (6.9) 66 (7.1) 95 (9.2)
 Model 1 * 1.42 (1.06–1.90) 1.28 (0.95–1.72) Ref 1.08 (0.81–1.44) ** 1.42 (1.10–1.84)
 Model 2 1.22 (0.90–1.64) 1.21 (0.90–1.63) Ref 1.09 (0.82–1.46) ** 1.53 (1.17–1.98)
 Model 3 0.97 (0.70–1.34) 1.11 (0.82–1.49) Ref 1.18 (0.88–1.58) *** 1.84 (1.39–2.43)
Women, N (%) 873 (12.7) 875 (12.7) 2596 (37.8) 1131 (16.5) 1393 (20.3)
All-cause mortality
 Number of events 212 (24.3) 181 (20.7) 487 (18.8) 176 (15.6) 259 (18.6)
 Model 1 ** 1.26 (1.08–1.48) 1.03 (0.87–1.22) Ref 0.86 (0.73–1.03) 1.09 (0.93–1.26)
 Model 2 1.13 (0.95–1.33) 0.97 (0.82–1.16) Ref 0.91 (0.76–1.08) 1.15 (0.98–1.34)
 Model 3 1.03 (0.87–1.24) 0.93 (0.78–1.10) Ref 0.95 (0.79–1.13) ** 1.25 (1.06–1.46)
CVD mortality
 Number of events 49 (5.6) 56 (6.4) 152 (5.8) 50 (4.4) 75 (5.4)
 Model 1 0.91 (0.66–1.26) 0.97 (0.72–1.32) Ref 0.81 (0.59–1.12) 1.04 (0.79–1.38)
 Model 2 0.80 (0.57–1.11) 0.91 (0.67–1.24) Ref 0.87 (0.63–1.20) 1.14 (0.86–1.52)
 Model 3 0.77 (0.54–1.09) 0.89 (0.65–1.22) Ref 0.87 (0.63–1.21) 1.15 (0.85–1.55)
  1. ***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05
  2. Associations were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression with a median follow-up from 2HE of 16 years. Results are hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, HR (95% CI)
  3. Model 1: adjusted for age (continuous)
  4. Model 2: Model 1 + further adjusted for BMI (continuous), waist circumference (continuous), smoking (categorical), physical activity (categorical), educational level (categorical) and social class (categorical), and menopausal status (categorical) in women
  5. Model 3: Model 2 + further adjusted for weight change (continuous)
  6. 2HE 2nd health examination, CVD cardiovascular disease, BMI body mass index