Table 2 Associations between total and CVD mortality in 5469 men and 6868 women and categories of change in waist circumference

Men, N (%)

641 (11.7)

656 (12.0)

2211 (40.4)

926 (16.9)

1035 (18.9)

 Number of events

218 (34.0)

196 (29.9)

585 (26.5)

246 (26.6)

306 (29.5)

 Model 1

** 1.28 (1.09–1.49)

1.07 (0.91–1.26)

Ref

1.04 (0.90–1.21)

* 1.19 (1.03–1.36)

 Model 2

1.14 (0.97–1.34)

1.03 (0.87–1.21)

Ref

1.06 (0.91–1.23)

** 1.26 (1.10–1.46)

 Model 3

0.93 (0.78–1.10)

0.95 (0.80–1.12)

Ref

1.15 (0.99–1.34)

*** 1.51 (1.29–1.75)

 Number of events

64 (10.0)

62 (9.4)

153 (6.9)

66 (7.1)

95 (9.2)

 Model 1

* 1.42 (1.06–1.90)

1.28 (0.95–1.72)

Ref

1.08 (0.81–1.44)

** 1.42 (1.10–1.84)

 Model 2

1.22 (0.90–1.64)

1.21 (0.90–1.63)

Ref

1.09 (0.82–1.46)

** 1.53 (1.17–1.98)

 Model 3

0.97 (0.70–1.34)

1.11 (0.82–1.49)

Ref

1.18 (0.88–1.58)

*** 1.84 (1.39–2.43)

Women, N (%)

873 (12.7)

875 (12.7)

2596 (37.8)

1131 (16.5)

1393 (20.3)

 Number of events

212 (24.3)

181 (20.7)

487 (18.8)

176 (15.6)

259 (18.6)

 Model 1

** 1.26 (1.08–1.48)

1.03 (0.87–1.22)

Ref

0.86 (0.73–1.03)

1.09 (0.93–1.26)

 Model 2

1.13 (0.95–1.33)

0.97 (0.82–1.16)

Ref

0.91 (0.76–1.08)

1.15 (0.98–1.34)

 Model 3

1.03 (0.87–1.24)

0.93 (0.78–1.10)

Ref

0.95 (0.79–1.13)

** 1.25 (1.06–1.46)

 Number of events

49 (5.6)

56 (6.4)

152 (5.8)

50 (4.4)

75 (5.4)

 Model 1

0.91 (0.66–1.26)

0.97 (0.72–1.32)

Ref

0.81 (0.59–1.12)

1.04 (0.79–1.38)

 Model 2

0.80 (0.57–1.11)

0.91 (0.67–1.24)

Ref

0.87 (0.63–1.20)

1.14 (0.86–1.52)

 Model 3

0.77 (0.54–1.09)

0.89 (0.65–1.22)

Ref

0.87 (0.63–1.21)

1.15 (0.85–1.55)