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Table 4 Assessment of the ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict stroke and death at 1 and 2 year follow-up in the KorAHF study population, stratified according to prior diagnosis of atrial fibrillation

From: Predicting stroke and death in patients with heart failure using CHA2DS2-VASc score in Asia

Characteristics

Overall (n = 5158)

With AF (n = 2091)

Without AF (n = 3067)

HR (95% CI)

P-value

HR (95% CI)

P-value

HR (95% CI)

P-value

At 1 year

 Stroke

  Model 1

1.157 (1.070–1.253)

< 0.001

1.165 (1.043–1.302)

0.007

1.145 (1.022–1.282)

0.019

  Model 2

1.173 (1.072–1.283)

0.001

1.162 (1.028–1.313)

0.017

1.156 (1.006–1.328)

0.040

  Model 3

1.151 (1.050–1.260)

0.003

1.140 (1.005–1.290)

0.042

1.145 (0.997–1.310)

0.054

  C-index (95% CI)a

0.595 (0.536–0.654)

0.598 (0.538–0.658)

0.593 (0.534–0.652)

 Death

  Model 1

1.212 (1.174–1.251)

< 0.001

1.180 (1.121–1.242)

< 0.001

1.233 (1.183–1.284)

< 0.001

  Model 2

1.196 (1.153–1.241)

< 0.001

1.165 (1.100–1.234)

< 0.001

1.213 (1.155–1.275)

< 0.001

  C-index (95% CI)a

0.618 (0.599–0.636)

0.600 (0.571–0.629)

0.630 (0.606–0.653)

At 2 year

 Stroke

  Model 1

1.187 (1.105–1.275)

< 0.001

1.212 (1.097–1.340)

< 0.001

1.157 (1.044–1.283)

0.006

  Model 2

1.210 (1.116–1.313)

< 0.001

1.237 (1.108–1.381)

< 0.001

1.144 (1.009–1.298)

0.036

  Model 3

1.181 (1.088–1.280)

< 0.001

1.204 (1.077–1.350)

0.001

1.128 (0.995–1.280)

0.061

  C-index (95% CI)a

0.626 (0.573–0.680)

0.639 (0.585–0.694)

0.613 (0.561–0.666)

 Death

  Model 1

1.227 (1.194–1.260)

< 0.001

1.207 (1.156–1.260)

< 0.001

1.239 (1.197–1.283)

< 0.001

  Model 2

1.210 (1.173–1.248)

< 0.001

1.192 (1.135–1.251)

< 0.001

1.216 (1.167–1.268)

< 0.001

  C-index (95% CI)a

0.635 (0.612–0.658)

0.626 (0.600–0.652)

0.635 (0.612–0.658)

  1. Model 1: unadjusted model
  2. Model 2: adjusted for previous chronic renal failure, ischemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), medications (Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, Angiotensin receptor blockers, Βeta-blockers, Aldosterone antagonist, Loop diuretics, Digoxin, Warfarin, Aspirin, Statin), and smoking
  3. Model 3: competing risk model adjusted for previous chronic renal failure, ischemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), medications (Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, Angiotensin receptor blockers, Βeta-blockers, Aldosterone antagonist, Loop diuretics, Digoxin, Warfarin, Aspirin, Statin), and smoking after considering all-cause death as a competing risk
  4. Abbreviations: AF atrial fibrillation, HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval
  5. a From time-receiver operative characteristic (ROC) curve analysis