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Table 4 Predictors of 3-months all-cause mortality among acute heart failure participants in rural Uganda, MAHFER study

From: Validation of heart failure quality of life tool and usage to predict all-cause mortality in acute heart failure in Uganda: the Mbarara heart failure registry (MAHFER)

Characteristic Model 1
AHR (95% CI)
Model 2
AHR (95% CI)
Model 3
AHR (95% CI)
Model 4
AHR (95% CI)
Age, each year increase   1.0 (0.9, 1.0) 1.0 (0.9, 1.0) 1.0 (0.9, 1.0)
Men   0.8 (0.4, 1.7) 0.8 (0.4, 1.7) 0.8 (0.3, 1.6)
Women   Ref Ref Ref
Overall KCCQ score
 Poor (KCCQ 25 to 49%) Ref   Ref Ref
 Fair (KCCQ score 50 to 74%) 0.6 (0.2, 1.6)   1.4 (0.4, 13) 1.3 (0.1, 12.9)
 Worst (KCCQ score 0 to 24%) 1.4 (0.8, 2.2)   2.9 (1.1, 8.0) 2.9 (1.1, 8.1)*
Asset index, quintiles
 Poorest   1.4 (0.5, 3.8) 1.1 (0.4, 3.0) 0.9 (0.3, 2.5)
 Poor   2.6 (1.0, 6.7)* 1.8 (0.6, 5.0) 1.6 (0.6, 4.6)
 Average   Ref Ref Ref
 Rich   0.8 (0.2, 2.5) 0.7 (0.2, 2.4) 0.8 (0.3, 2.8)
 Richest   2.8 (1.0, 7.5)* 3.5 (1.2, 9.8)* 3.6 (1.2, 10.8)*
Prior Heart failure hospitalizations   1.3 (0.9, 1.8) 1.3 (0.9, 1.8) 1.3 (0.9, 1.8)
Self-reported good medication adherence   Ref Ref Ref
Self-reported poor medication adherence   1.6 (0.8, 3.1) 1.8 (0.9, 3.7) 1.8 (0.9, 3.7)
Smoking status
 Never   Ref Ref Ref
 Former   1.1 (0.4, 2.7) 0.9 (0.4, 2.2) 0.9 (0.3, 2.4)
 Current   2.4 (0.3, 20.9) 2.7 (0.3, 24.4) 2.1 (0.2, 19.9)
Alcoholic drinks per sitting (each 1 increase)   1.4 (1.0, 1.9)* 1.4 (1.0, 2.0)* 1.4 (1.0, 1.9)*
History of hypertension   0.5 (0.2, 0.9)* 0.5 (0.2, 0.9)* 0.4 (0.2, 0.9)*
History of diabetes mellitus   2.5 (0.9, 7.0) 2.3 (0.8, 6.3) 2.3 (0.8, 6.4)
History of HIV infection   0.9 (0.4, 2.0) 1.1 (0.5, 2.3) 1.0 (0.4, 2.3)
NYHA functional class
 Class III   Ref Ref Ref
 Class IV   2.7 (1.4, 5.2)** 2.8 (1.4, 5.7)** 2.6 (1.3, 5.4)**
Left ventricular ejection fraction
 Reduced (≤ 40%)   1.2 (0.5, 2.9) 1.1 (0.4, 2.8) 1.2 (0.4, 3.0)
 Middle range (41–49%)   Ref Ref Ref
 Preserved (≥ 50%)   1.2 (0.4, 3.6) 1.0 (0.3, 3.0) 0.9 (0.3, 2.9)
Renal function eGFR## (ml/min/1.73 m2)
  ≥ 90   Ref Ref Ref
 60–89   0.6 (0.3, 1.6) 0.6 (0.2, 1.5) 0.7 (0.3, 1.7)
 30–59   2.4 (0.8, 7.1) 2.6 (0.8, 7.7) 3.4 (1.1, 10.8)*
 15–29   2.1 (0.6, 7.6) 1.5 (0.4, 5.6) 1.7 (0.4, 6.8)
  < 15   3.4 (1.4, 8.3)** 3.0 (1.3, 7.3)* 2.7 (1.0, 7.1)*
Cardiac biomarkers
 BNP, each 1 pg/mL increase     1.0 (1.0, 1.0)*
 CKMB, each 1 ng/mL increase     1.0 (1.0, 1.1)*
  1. AHR Adjusted Hazard Ratio, KCCQ Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, NYHA New York Heart Association functional class, eGFR## Estimated glomerular filtration rate, BNP Brain Natriuretic Peptide; CKMB: Creatine-Kinase (MB isomer)
  2. *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001
  3. Note: 1. There were no participants with good (KCCQ score 75 to 100%) overall KCCQ score
  4. 2. The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was estimated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation for blacks stratified by gender (mL/min/1.73 m2)
  5. 3. The C-statistics for models increased as more variables were added by model i.e., Model 1 (56.6%), Model 2 (73.1%), Model 3 (74.8%), and Model 4 (75.7%)
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