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Table 4 Predictors of 3-months all-cause mortality among acute heart failure participants in rural Uganda, MAHFER study

From: Validation of heart failure quality of life tool and usage to predict all-cause mortality in acute heart failure in Uganda: the Mbarara heart failure registry (MAHFER)

Characteristic

Model 1

AHR (95% CI)

Model 2

AHR (95% CI)

Model 3

AHR (95% CI)

Model 4

AHR (95% CI)

Age, each year increase

 

1.0 (0.9, 1.0)

1.0 (0.9, 1.0)

1.0 (0.9, 1.0)

Men

 

0.8 (0.4, 1.7)

0.8 (0.4, 1.7)

0.8 (0.3, 1.6)

Women

 

Ref

Ref

Ref

Overall KCCQ score

 Poor (KCCQ 25 to 49%)

Ref

 

Ref

Ref

 Fair (KCCQ score 50 to 74%)

0.6 (0.2, 1.6)

 

1.4 (0.4, 13)

1.3 (0.1, 12.9)

 Worst (KCCQ score 0 to 24%)

1.4 (0.8, 2.2)

 

2.9 (1.1, 8.0)

2.9 (1.1, 8.1)*

Asset index, quintiles

 Poorest

 

1.4 (0.5, 3.8)

1.1 (0.4, 3.0)

0.9 (0.3, 2.5)

 Poor

 

2.6 (1.0, 6.7)*

1.8 (0.6, 5.0)

1.6 (0.6, 4.6)

 Average

 

Ref

Ref

Ref

 Rich

 

0.8 (0.2, 2.5)

0.7 (0.2, 2.4)

0.8 (0.3, 2.8)

 Richest

 

2.8 (1.0, 7.5)*

3.5 (1.2, 9.8)*

3.6 (1.2, 10.8)*

Prior Heart failure hospitalizations

 

1.3 (0.9, 1.8)

1.3 (0.9, 1.8)

1.3 (0.9, 1.8)

Self-reported good medication adherence

 

Ref

Ref

Ref

Self-reported poor medication adherence

 

1.6 (0.8, 3.1)

1.8 (0.9, 3.7)

1.8 (0.9, 3.7)

Smoking status

 Never

 

Ref

Ref

Ref

 Former

 

1.1 (0.4, 2.7)

0.9 (0.4, 2.2)

0.9 (0.3, 2.4)

 Current

 

2.4 (0.3, 20.9)

2.7 (0.3, 24.4)

2.1 (0.2, 19.9)

Alcoholic drinks per sitting (each 1 increase)

 

1.4 (1.0, 1.9)*

1.4 (1.0, 2.0)*

1.4 (1.0, 1.9)*

History of hypertension

 

0.5 (0.2, 0.9)*

0.5 (0.2, 0.9)*

0.4 (0.2, 0.9)*

History of diabetes mellitus

 

2.5 (0.9, 7.0)

2.3 (0.8, 6.3)

2.3 (0.8, 6.4)

History of HIV infection

 

0.9 (0.4, 2.0)

1.1 (0.5, 2.3)

1.0 (0.4, 2.3)

NYHA functional class

 Class III

 

Ref

Ref

Ref

 Class IV

 

2.7 (1.4, 5.2)**

2.8 (1.4, 5.7)**

2.6 (1.3, 5.4)**

Left ventricular ejection fraction

 Reduced (≤ 40%)

 

1.2 (0.5, 2.9)

1.1 (0.4, 2.8)

1.2 (0.4, 3.0)

 Middle range (41–49%)

 

Ref

Ref

Ref

 Preserved (≥ 50%)

 

1.2 (0.4, 3.6)

1.0 (0.3, 3.0)

0.9 (0.3, 2.9)

Renal function eGFR## (ml/min/1.73 m2)

  ≥ 90

 

Ref

Ref

Ref

 60–89

 

0.6 (0.3, 1.6)

0.6 (0.2, 1.5)

0.7 (0.3, 1.7)

 30–59

 

2.4 (0.8, 7.1)

2.6 (0.8, 7.7)

3.4 (1.1, 10.8)*

 15–29

 

2.1 (0.6, 7.6)

1.5 (0.4, 5.6)

1.7 (0.4, 6.8)

  < 15

 

3.4 (1.4, 8.3)**

3.0 (1.3, 7.3)*

2.7 (1.0, 7.1)*

Cardiac biomarkers

 BNP∞, each 1 pg/mL increase

   

1.0 (1.0, 1.0)*

 CKMB€, each 1 ng/mL increase

   

1.0 (1.0, 1.1)*

  1. AHR Adjusted Hazard Ratio, KCCQ Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, NYHA New York Heart Association functional class, eGFR## Estimated glomerular filtration rate, BNP Brain Natriuretic Peptide; CKMB€: Creatine-Kinase (MB isomer)
  2. *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001
  3. Note: 1. There were no participants with good (KCCQ score 75 to 100%) overall KCCQ score
  4. 2. The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was estimated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation for blacks stratified by gender (mL/min/1.73 m2)
  5. 3. The C-statistics for models increased as more variables were added by model i.e., Model 1 (56.6%), Model 2 (73.1%), Model 3 (74.8%), and Model 4 (75.7%)