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Table 1 Probability of hospitalization, excess mortality for hospitalized states and probability of adverse events

From: An early analysis of cost-utility of baroreflex activation therapy in advanced chronic heart failure in Germany

Parameter

Value

Variance

Distribution and coefficients for probabilistic sensitivity analysis

Source

Six-month probability of excess mortality for NYHA class II

0.04

0.032–0.048

Beta (α = 4; β = 96)

Cowper 2004 [35]

Six-month probability of excess mortality for NYHA class III

0.07

0.056–0.084

Beta (α = 7; β = 93)

Six-month probability of excess mortality for NYHA class IV

0.28

0.224–0.336

Beta (α = 28; β = 72)

Monthly probability of hospitalization for NYHA class I

0.015

0.008–0.023

Beta (α = 1.5; β = 98.5)

Ford 2012 [19]

Monthly probability of hospitalization for NYHA class II

0.024

0.012–0.036

Beta (α = 2.4; β = 97.6)

Monthly probability of hospitalization for NYHA class III

0.024

0.012–0.036

Beta (α = 2.4; β = 97.6)

Monthly probability of hospitalization for NYHA class IV

0.154

0.77–0.23

Beta (α = 15.4; β = 84.6)

Probability of short-term adverse events (30 days)

0.070

0.03–0.1

Beta (α = 3; β = 38)

Barostim Clinical evidence report (unpublished)

Probability of serious adverse event (Months 1 to 6)

0.033

0–0.05

Beta (α = 1; β = 29)

Hoppe 2012 [36]

RR for mortality in Barostim arm

0.61

0.52–0.70

Log-normal (SElog = 0.0467)

Application of the data from the MAGGIC risk prediction model to the individual patient data from the RCT of Barostim in heart failure

RR for hospitalizations due to heart failure in Barostim arm

0.40

0.34–1.05

Log-normal (SElog = 0.18)

Zile 2015 [18]