Skip to main content

Table 1 Outcomes of the Monte Carlo simulation in which rivaroxaban (RVX) is compared to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for the prevention of stroke in a hypothetical cohort of premenopausal women with atrial fibrillation over their lifetime

From: Uncertainty on the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban in premenopausal women with atrial fibrillation: empirical evidence needed

  Rivaroxaban (RVX) Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) Increment of RVX vs. VKAs Chance RVX performs better
Mean 95% CIa Mean 95% CIa Mean 95% CIa
Benefit/Risk profile
 Clinical events, per 1000 subjects over the lifetime
  Ischemic stroke or TIA 567 408 to 759 611 428 to 832 −44 −318 to +222 61%
  Systemic embolism 87 36 to 169 102 47 to 182 −15 −110 to +84 63%
  Myocardial infarction 319 190 to 496 362 228 to 533 −43 −141 to +49 84%
  Intracranial hemorrhage 136 74 to 226 210 146 to 290 −74 −140 to −8 98%
  Extracranial hemorrhage (ECH)
   Major AUB 928 57 to 1990 429 21 to 894 499 −5.83 to +1690 24%
   Major other ECH 1023 685 to 1458 832 639 to 1060 191 −65 to +536 9%
   Minor AUB 3872 2194 to 5739 1868 1442 to 2314 2004 227 to +3929 1%
   Minor other ECH 3763 2670 to 5137 3401 2716 to 4188 362 −513 to +1436 23%
 QALYs, per subject 30.48 26.89 to 33.86 29.91 26.31 to 33.34 0.57 −0.80 to 2.15 78%
Cost-effectiveness (×€1000, per subject)
 Healthcare costs 63.7 45.2 to 91.4 47.5 32.5 to 66.7 16.3 −6.1 to 43.1 8%
 Costs per QALY gainedb 28.5 60%c
 Net monetary benefitc 1460 1276 to 1637 1448 1265 to 1625 12 −75 to 109 60%
  1. aThe lower bound of the range equals the 2.5th percentile, and the upper bound equals the 97.5th percentile
  2. bOtherwise defined as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)
  3. cThe net monetary benefit (NMB) is the monetary value assigned to the total amount of QALYs that is associated with a treatment, subtracted by the costs of the treatment. We assumed that one QALY was valued with €50,000. The treatment with the highest NMB is considered cost-effective