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Table 1 Clinical inputs for base-case value and ranges in decision analytic model

From: Cost-effectiveness analysis of left atrial appendage occlusion compared with pharmacological strategies for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation

Variable

Base-Case

Range

References

Stroke

 Annual rate of ischemic stroke, %

  Aspirin alone

2 · 80

2 · 80

4 · 50

[2, 18]

  Clopidogrel plus aspirin

1 · 90

1 · 69

2 · 11

[2]

  Warfarin

1 · 21

1 · 05

1 · 42

[3, 4, 13]

  Dabigatran, 110 mg

1 · 34

1 · 31

1 · 55

[3, 15]

  Dabigatran, 150 mg

0 · 92

0 · 75

1 · 09

[3, 15]

  Apixaban

0 · 97

0 · 78

1 · 19

[13, 16]

  Rivaroxaban

1 · 34

1 · 07

1 · 66

[4, 16]

  LAA

0 · 84

0 · 40

1 · 10

[5, 14]

 Ischemic stroke with clopidogrel plus aspirin or aspirin alone, %

  Fatal (within 30 days)

17 · 90

10 · 10

17 · 90

[17]

  Moderate to severe neurologic sequelae

30 · 00

30 · 00

41 · 70

[17]

  Mild neurologic sequelae

41 · 00

34 · 80

41 · 00

[17]

  No residual neurologic sequelae

11 · 00

11 · 00

13 · 30

[17]

 Ischemic stroke with warfarin, dabigatran, apixaban, rivaroxaban or LAA, %

  Fatal (within 30 days)

8 · 20

5 · 50

10 · 90

[15, 17]

  Moderate to severe neurologic sequelae

40 · 20

35 · 30

45 · 10

[15, 17]

  Mild neurologic sequelae

42 · 50

37 · 60

47 · 40

[15, 17]

  No residual neurologic sequelae

9 · 10

6 · 20

12 · 00

[15, 17]

  Annual rate of TIA, %

28 · 00

25 · 00

33 · 00

[15, 17]

Hemorrhage

 Annual rate of minor hemorrhage, %

  Aspirin alone

1 · 40

1 · 27

1 · 53

[2]

  Clopidogrel plus aspirin

3 · 50

2 · 58

4 · 42

[2]

  Warfarin

18 · 63

11 · 40

25 · 80

[3, 4, 13]

  Dabigatran, 110 mg

13 · 20

12 · 60

13 · 80

[3, 19]

  Dabigatran, 150 mg

14 · 80

14 · 20

15 · 50

[3, 19]

  Apixaban

18 · 10

17 · 54

19 · 35

[13]

  Rivaroxaban

11 · 80

10 · 94

12 · 88

[4]

  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA)

4 · 28

3 · 70

4 · 86

Assumption

  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA)

1 · 40

1 · 27

1 · 53

Assumption

 Annual rate of major hemorrhage, %

  Aspirin alone

1 · 00

0 · 68

1 · 32

[2]

  Clopidogrel plus aspirin

1 · 50

1 · 35

1 · 65

[2]

  Warfarin

3 · 32

3 · 09

3 · 57

[3, 4, 13]

  Dabigatran, 110 mg

2 · 87

2 · 50

3 · 32

[3, 19]

  Dabigatran, 150 mg

3 · 32

2 · 89

3 · 82

[3, 19]

  Apixaban

2 · 13

1 · 85

2 · 47

[13]

  Rivaroxaban

3 · 60

3 · 06

4 · 08

[4]

  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA)

1 · 54

1 · 30

1 · 77

Assumption

  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA)

1 · 00

0 · 68

1 · 32

Assumption

 Annual rate of ICH, %

  Aspirin alone

0 · 20

0 · 19

0 · 21

[2]

  Clopidogrel plus aspirin

0 · 40

0 · 24

0 · 59

[2]

  Warfarin

0 · 75

0 · 70

0 · 80

[3, 4, 13]

  Dabigatran, 110 mg

0 · 23

0 · 14

0 · 32

[3, 15]

  Dabigatran, 150 mg

0 · 30

0 · 20

0 · 40

[3, 15]

  Apixaban

0 · 33

0 · 24

0 · 46

[13]

  Rivaroxaban

0 · 50

0 · 33

0 · 65

[4]

  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA)

0 · 37

0 · 27

0 · 47

Assumption

  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA)

0 · 20

0 · 19

0 · 21

Assumption

 Annual rate of major hemorrhage as fatal, %

  Aspirin alone

0 · 20

0 · 14

0 · 26

[2]

  Clopidogrel plus aspirin

0 · 30

0 · 19

0 · 51

[2]

  Warfarin

0 · 90

0 · 50

1 · 80

[3, 4, 13]

  Dabigatran, 110 mg

1 · 22

1 · 08

1 · 36

[3]

  Dabigatran, 150 mg

1 · 45

1 · 33

1 · 56

[3]

  Apixaban

0 · 37

0 · 30

0 · 42

[13]

  Rivaroxaban

0 · 20

0 · 16

0 · 40

[4]

  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA)

0 · 45

0 · 38

0 · 51

Assumption

  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA)

0 · 20

0 · 14

0 · 26

Assumption

Myocardial infarction

 Annual rate of MI, %

  Aspirin alone

0 · 90

0 · 77

1 · 03

[2]

  Clopidogrel plus aspirin

0 · 70

0 · 53

0 · 93

[2]

  Warfarin

0 · 78

0 · 61

1 · 12

[3, 4, 13]

  Dabigatran, 110 mg

0 · 82

0 · 61

1 · 12

[3, 19]

  Dabigatran, 150 mg

0 · 81

0 · 60

1 · 09

[3, 19]

  Apixaban

0 · 53

0 · 40

0 · 71

[13]

  Rivaroxaban

0 · 91

0 · 71

1 · 19

[4]

  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA)

0 · 76

0 · 57

1 · 00

Assumption

  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA)

0 · 90

0 · 77

1 · 03

Assumption

Pericardial Effusions, %

 Rate of Pericardial effusions

  LAA (within 7 days)

2 · 07

1 · 50

2 · 40

[5, 14]

 Success implantation, %

  Rate of LAA device implanted after discontinuing warfarin

0.868

0.8342

0.9018

[18]

Hospitalization

 Annual rate of Hospitalization, %

  Warfarin

20 · 80

15 · 5

26 · 10

[3]

  Dabigatran, 110 mg

19 · 40

13 · 49

25 · 32

[3]

  Dabigatran, 150 mg

20 · 20

19 · 94

20 · 46

[3]

  Apixaban

20 · 80

15 · 50

26 · 10

Assumed equal to Wafarin

  Rivaroxaban

20 · 80

15 · 50

26 · 10

Assumed equal to Wafarin

  LAA

1 · 08

0 · 00

5 · 00

[5]

 Relative Risk of Hospitalization, %

  Warfarin vs. aspirin

1 · 22

0 · 64

2 · 36

[20]

  Warfarin vs. clopidogrel plus aspirin

1 · 22

0 · 64

2 · 36

Assumed equal to Aspirin

Death

 Death from vascular cause, %

  Aspirin alone

4 · 70

4 · 48

4 · 92

[2]

  Clopidogrel plus aspirin

4 · 70

4 · 18

5 · 26

[2]

  Warfarin

2 · 10

1 · 71

2 · 69

[3, 4, 13]

  Dabigatran, 110 mg

2 · 43

2 · 23

2 · 63

[3]

  Dabigatran, 150 mg

2 · 28

2 · 03

2 · 53

[3]

  Apixaban

1 · 80

1 · 54

2 · 10

[13]

 All-cause mortality, %

  Aspirin alone

6 · 60

5 · 53

7 · 67

[2]

  Clopidogrel plus aspirin

6 · 40

5 · 87

7 · 13

[2]

  Warfarin

2 · 89

0 · 50

4 · 13

[3]

  Dabigatran, 110 mg

3 · 75

3 · 51

3 · 99

[3]

  Dabigatran, 150 mg

3 · 64

3 · 28

4 · 00

[3]

  Apixaban

3 · 52

3 · 15

3 · 90

[13]

  Rivaroxaban

4.50

4.01

4.99

[4]

  LAA

3.20

1.56

4.84

[21]