Variable | Base-Case | Range | References | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Stroke | ||||
 Annual rate of ischemic stroke, % | ||||
  Aspirin alone | 2 · 80 | 2 · 80 | 4 · 50 | |
  Clopidogrel plus aspirin | 1 · 90 | 1 · 69 | 2 · 11 | [2] |
  Warfarin | 1 · 21 | 1 · 05 | 1 · 42 | |
  Dabigatran, 110 mg | 1 · 34 | 1 · 31 | 1 · 55 | |
  Dabigatran, 150 mg | 0 · 92 | 0 · 75 | 1 · 09 | |
  Apixaban | 0 · 97 | 0 · 78 | 1 · 19 | |
  Rivaroxaban | 1 · 34 | 1 · 07 | 1 · 66 | |
  LAA | 0 · 84 | 0 · 40 | 1 · 10 | |
 Ischemic stroke with clopidogrel plus aspirin or aspirin alone, % | ||||
  Fatal (within 30 days) | 17 · 90 | 10 · 10 | 17 · 90 | [17] |
  Moderate to severe neurologic sequelae | 30 · 00 | 30 · 00 | 41 · 70 | [17] |
  Mild neurologic sequelae | 41 · 00 | 34 · 80 | 41 · 00 | [17] |
  No residual neurologic sequelae | 11 · 00 | 11 · 00 | 13 · 30 | [17] |
 Ischemic stroke with warfarin, dabigatran, apixaban, rivaroxaban or LAA, % | ||||
  Fatal (within 30 days) | 8 · 20 | 5 · 50 | 10 · 90 | |
  Moderate to severe neurologic sequelae | 40 · 20 | 35 · 30 | 45 · 10 | |
  Mild neurologic sequelae | 42 · 50 | 37 · 60 | 47 · 40 | |
  No residual neurologic sequelae | 9 · 10 | 6 · 20 | 12 · 00 | |
  Annual rate of TIA, % | 28 · 00 | 25 · 00 | 33 · 00 | |
Hemorrhage | ||||
 Annual rate of minor hemorrhage, % | ||||
  Aspirin alone | 1 · 40 | 1 · 27 | 1 · 53 | [2] |
  Clopidogrel plus aspirin | 3 · 50 | 2 · 58 | 4 · 42 | [2] |
  Warfarin | 18 · 63 | 11 · 40 | 25 · 80 | |
  Dabigatran, 110 mg | 13 · 20 | 12 · 60 | 13 · 80 | |
  Dabigatran, 150 mg | 14 · 80 | 14 · 20 | 15 · 50 | |
  Apixaban | 18 · 10 | 17 · 54 | 19 · 35 | [13] |
  Rivaroxaban | 11 · 80 | 10 · 94 | 12 · 88 | [4] |
  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 4 · 28 | 3 · 70 | 4 · 86 | Assumption |
  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 1 · 40 | 1 · 27 | 1 · 53 | Assumption |
 Annual rate of major hemorrhage, % | ||||
  Aspirin alone | 1 · 00 | 0 · 68 | 1 · 32 | [2] |
  Clopidogrel plus aspirin | 1 · 50 | 1 · 35 | 1 · 65 | [2] |
  Warfarin | 3 · 32 | 3 · 09 | 3 · 57 | |
  Dabigatran, 110 mg | 2 · 87 | 2 · 50 | 3 · 32 | |
  Dabigatran, 150 mg | 3 · 32 | 2 · 89 | 3 · 82 | |
  Apixaban | 2 · 13 | 1 · 85 | 2 · 47 | [13] |
  Rivaroxaban | 3 · 60 | 3 · 06 | 4 · 08 | [4] |
  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 1 · 54 | 1 · 30 | 1 · 77 | Assumption |
  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 1 · 00 | 0 · 68 | 1 · 32 | Assumption |
 Annual rate of ICH, % | ||||
  Aspirin alone | 0 · 20 | 0 · 19 | 0 · 21 | [2] |
  Clopidogrel plus aspirin | 0 · 40 | 0 · 24 | 0 · 59 | [2] |
  Warfarin | 0 · 75 | 0 · 70 | 0 · 80 | |
  Dabigatran, 110 mg | 0 · 23 | 0 · 14 | 0 · 32 | |
  Dabigatran, 150 mg | 0 · 30 | 0 · 20 | 0 · 40 | |
  Apixaban | 0 · 33 | 0 · 24 | 0 · 46 | [13] |
  Rivaroxaban | 0 · 50 | 0 · 33 | 0 · 65 | [4] |
  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 0 · 37 | 0 · 27 | 0 · 47 | Assumption |
  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 0 · 20 | 0 · 19 | 0 · 21 | Assumption |
 Annual rate of major hemorrhage as fatal, % | ||||
  Aspirin alone | 0 · 20 | 0 · 14 | 0 · 26 | [2] |
  Clopidogrel plus aspirin | 0 · 30 | 0 · 19 | 0 · 51 | [2] |
  Warfarin | 0 · 90 | 0 · 50 | 1 · 80 | |
  Dabigatran, 110 mg | 1 · 22 | 1 · 08 | 1 · 36 | [3] |
  Dabigatran, 150 mg | 1 · 45 | 1 · 33 | 1 · 56 | [3] |
  Apixaban | 0 · 37 | 0 · 30 | 0 · 42 | [13] |
  Rivaroxaban | 0 · 20 | 0 · 16 | 0 · 40 | [4] |
  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 0 · 45 | 0 · 38 | 0 · 51 | Assumption |
  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 0 · 20 | 0 · 14 | 0 · 26 | Assumption |
Myocardial infarction | ||||
 Annual rate of MI, % | ||||
  Aspirin alone | 0 · 90 | 0 · 77 | 1 · 03 | [2] |
  Clopidogrel plus aspirin | 0 · 70 | 0 · 53 | 0 · 93 | [2] |
  Warfarin | 0 · 78 | 0 · 61 | 1 · 12 | |
  Dabigatran, 110 mg | 0 · 82 | 0 · 61 | 1 · 12 | |
  Dabigatran, 150 mg | 0 · 81 | 0 · 60 | 1 · 09 | |
  Apixaban | 0 · 53 | 0 · 40 | 0 · 71 | [13] |
  Rivaroxaban | 0 · 91 | 0 · 71 | 1 · 19 | [4] |
  LAA (45 days warfarin followed by 180 days clopidogrel and aspirin then lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 0 · 76 | 0 · 57 | 1 · 00 | Assumption |
  LAA (lifetime aspirin after LAA) | 0 · 90 | 0 · 77 | 1 · 03 | Assumption |
Pericardial Effusions, % | ||||
 Rate of Pericardial effusions | ||||
  LAA (within 7 days) | 2 · 07 | 1 · 50 | 2 · 40 | |
 Success implantation, % | ||||
  Rate of LAA device implanted after discontinuing warfarin | 0.868 | 0.8342 | 0.9018 | [18] |
Hospitalization | ||||
 Annual rate of Hospitalization, % | ||||
  Warfarin | 20 · 80 | 15 · 5 | 26 · 10 | [3] |
  Dabigatran, 110 mg | 19 · 40 | 13 · 49 | 25 · 32 | [3] |
  Dabigatran, 150 mg | 20 · 20 | 19 · 94 | 20 · 46 | [3] |
  Apixaban | 20 · 80 | 15 · 50 | 26 · 10 | Assumed equal to Wafarin |
  Rivaroxaban | 20 · 80 | 15 · 50 | 26 · 10 | Assumed equal to Wafarin |
  LAA | 1 · 08 | 0 · 00 | 5 · 00 | [5] |
 Relative Risk of Hospitalization, % | ||||
  Warfarin vs. aspirin | 1 · 22 | 0 · 64 | 2 · 36 | [20] |
  Warfarin vs. clopidogrel plus aspirin | 1 · 22 | 0 · 64 | 2 · 36 | Assumed equal to Aspirin |
Death | ||||
 Death from vascular cause, % | ||||
  Aspirin alone | 4 · 70 | 4 · 48 | 4 · 92 | [2] |
  Clopidogrel plus aspirin | 4 · 70 | 4 · 18 | 5 · 26 | [2] |
  Warfarin | 2 · 10 | 1 · 71 | 2 · 69 | |
  Dabigatran, 110 mg | 2 · 43 | 2 · 23 | 2 · 63 | [3] |
  Dabigatran, 150 mg | 2 · 28 | 2 · 03 | 2 · 53 | [3] |
  Apixaban | 1 · 80 | 1 · 54 | 2 · 10 | [13] |
 All-cause mortality, % | ||||
  Aspirin alone | 6 · 60 | 5 · 53 | 7 · 67 | [2] |
  Clopidogrel plus aspirin | 6 · 40 | 5 · 87 | 7 · 13 | [2] |
  Warfarin | 2 · 89 | 0 · 50 | 4 · 13 | [3] |
  Dabigatran, 110 mg | 3 · 75 | 3 · 51 | 3 · 99 | [3] |
  Dabigatran, 150 mg | 3 · 64 | 3 · 28 | 4 · 00 | [3] |
  Apixaban | 3 · 52 | 3 · 15 | 3 · 90 | [13] |
  Rivaroxaban | 4.50 | 4.01 | 4.99 | [4] |
  LAA | 3.20 | 1.56 | 4.84 | [21] |