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Table 3 Hazard ratios of CHD (only MI) from multivariable Cox proportional hazards model

From: Short-term predictive ability of selected cardiovascular risk prediction models in a rural Bangladeshi population: a case-cohort study

Variable

Women

Men

HR

95 % CI

P

HR

95 % CI

P

Model 1 (Laboratory based)a

 

Age (in 10 yrs)

0.99

0.71–1.38

0.968

1.38

0.97–1.98

0.078

 

Total cholesterol (mg/dl in 10 yrs)

0.99

0.88–1.12

0.930

1.13

1.03–1.26

0.015

 

HDL cholesterol (mg/dl in 10 yrs)

0.77

0.39–1.53

0.455

0.50

0.26–0.98

0.042

 

Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg in 10 yrs)

1.18

0.96–1.55

1.452

1.52

1.23–1.89

0.0001

 

History of blood pressure treatment

0.78

0.15–3.99

0.763

1.54

0.45–5.30

0.490

 

Current smoker

0.77

0.27–2.23

0.628

1.88

0.93–3.81

0.081

 

Diabetes

1.22

0.46–3.26

0.694

1.34

0.61–2.9

0.466

Model 2 (WHO with cholesterol)b

 

Age (in 10 yrs)

1.10

0.70–1.73

0.683

1.39

0.87–2.21

0.168

 

Total cholesterol (mg/dl in 10 yrs)

0.97

0.87–1.08

0.614

1.01

0.89–1.15

0.878

 

Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg in 10 yrs)

1.21

0.91–1.61

0.187

1.62

1.22–2.15

0.0008

 

History of blood pressure treatment

0.80

0.16–3.92

0.781

1.80

0.51–6.31

0.357

 

Current smoker

0.53

0.11–2.64

0.437

1.54

0.61–3.93

0.363

 

Diabetes

1.58

0.47–5.23

0.455

1.37

0.51–3.70

0.534

Model 3 (WHO without cholesterol)c

 

Age (in 10 yrs)

1.05

0.67–1.63

0.833

1.45

0.90–2.34

0.123

 

Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg in 10 yrs)

1.11

0.76–1.62

0.606

1.77

1.35–2.32

<0.0001

 

History of blood pressure treatment

0.44

0.06–3.10

0.412

1.94

0.48–7.82

0.348

 

Current smoker

0.52

0.11–2.56

0.421

1.56

0.61–3.98

0.353

 

Diabetes

1.44

0.43–4.83

0.556

1.41

0.53–3.78

0.488

Model 4 (Non-laboratory based)d

 

Age (in 10 yrs)

0.83

0.51–1.34

0.448

1.36

0.89–2.08

0.149

 

Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg in 10 yrs)

1.13

0.86–1.48

0.392

1.57

1.21–2.04

0.0007

 

History of blood pressure treatment

1.65

0.36–7.51

0.516

1.79

0.51–6.28

0.369

 

Current smoker

0.84

0.21–3.41

0.827

1.74

0.78–3.87

0.175

 

Diabetes

0.88

0.27–2.84

0.827

1.16

0.46–2.90

0.754

 

ABSIe (from 1 SD)

3.20

1.60–6.42

0.001

1.09

0.53–2.22

0.817

  1. HR hazard ration, yrs years, SD standard deviation
  2. aC statistics (95 % CI): 0.634 (0.527–0.710) for women; 0.675 (0.575–0.775) for men
  3. bC statistics (95 % CI): 0.626 (0.521–0.731) for women; 0.644 (0.541–0.746) for men
  4. cC statistics (95 % CI): 0.611 (0.506–0.717) for women; 0.631 (0.528–0.734) for men
  5. dC statistics (95 % CI): 0.685 (0.581–0.789) for women; 0.627 (0.525–0.728) for men
  6. eABSI (1 ± SD, male 0.0062 and female 0.0069)