Algorithms | Methods | Internal validation | External validation | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Framingham non-lab based algorithm [12] | Design: Prospective cohort study of Framingham heart study and Framingham offspring study. | Â | Men | Women | No external validation reported |
Discrimination (C-statistics): | 0.749 | 0.785 | |||
Calibration (χ2) | 13.61 | 10.24 | |||
Sample: 8491 participants (4522 women) aged 30 to 74 years who were free of CVD. | Sensitivity/specificity (20%, 10 yrs risk threshold) | (48/85)% | (58/83)% | ||
Baseline data: 1968 to 1971, 1971 to 1975, 1984 to 1987 | Comparative analysis [12] (General CVD risk) | ||||
 | Non-lab Framingham vs. Lab-Framingham-D’Agostino | ||||
C-statistics (men) | 0.749 | 0.763 | |||
C-statistics (women) | 0.785 | 0.793 | |||
Calibration χ2 (men) | 13.61 | 13.48 | |||
Analysis: Cox proportional-hazards regression | Calibration χ2 (women) | 10.24 | 7.79 | ||
Gaziano non-lab based algorithm [9] | Design: Prospective cohort study of NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study (NHEFS) | Â | Men | Women | C-statistics: 0.782 Men 0.807 Women |
Calibration (χ2): Not assessed | |||||
C-statistics: | 0.783 | 0.831 | |||
Calibration: (χ2) | 6.61 | 3.45 | |||
Sample: 6186 subjects (3349 Women) aged between 25 to 74 yrs without CVD or cancer. | Sensitivity/specificity: |  |  | Comparative analysis: Gaziano algorithm was compared with 4 lab based algorithms as follows: Framingham-D’Agostino-2008; Framingham-Anderson; [20] SCORE low; SCORE high [21]. | |
30%, 5 yrs risk threshold: | (8.8/98.6)% | (5.1/99.5)% | |||
20%, 5 yrs risk threshold: | (24.8/93.7)% | (17.6/97.7)% | |||
Baseline data: 1971 and 1975,1982–84,1987, and 1992 | Comparative analysis [9] (CVD risk) | C-statistics (men) respectively: | |||
 | Gaziano vs. Lab-Framingham-Anderson [20] | 0.782; 0.772; 0.778; 0.785; and 0.784. | |||
Analysis: Cox proportional-hazards regression | C-statistic (men) | 0·821 | 0.820 | C-statistics (women) respectively: | |
0.807; 0.832; 0.821; 0.792; and 0.793. | |||||
C-statistic (women) | 0·860 | 0.858 |  | ||
χ (men) | 6.61 | 6.70 |  | ||
χ2 (women) | 3.45 | 6.62 |  | ||
WHO/ISH cardiovascular risk prediction charts [14] | Design: Relative risks associated with CV risk factors were obtained from the comparative risk assessment project; these were combined with estimated absolute risks for each WHO sub region based on global burden of disease study. | C-statistics: Not reported. | No external validation reported | ||
Sample: from theoretical dataset. | Calibration (χ2): Not reported. | ||||
Baseline data: Not specified | Â | ||||
Analysis: Not specified. | Â | ||||
Swedish consultation based method [15]. | Design: A cross-sectional, population-based screening study with 17-year follow-up in Southern Sweden. | C-statistics (Overall): | 0.794 | Â | |
Calibration (χ2): | Not reported. | ||||
Sample: 689 individuals (349 men) without CVD. | Sensitivity/specificity. | Not reported | |||
Baseline data: 1989 to May 1990 | Comparative analysis [15] | No external validation reported | |||
 | Consultation vs. SCORE [21] | ||||
Analysis: Cox proportional-hazards regression | C-statistic: | 0.794 | 0.767 | ||
Calibration (χ2) | Not reported. | ||||
Consultation vs. extensive lab method [15]. | |||||
C-statistic: | 0.794 | 0.806 | |||
Calibration (χ2): | Not reported. | ||||
UK General Practice (GP) model [16]. | Design: Prospective cohort study of British Women Heart and Health study. | Â | CHD | CVD | No external validation reported |
C-statistics: | 0.66 | 0.67 | |||
Calibration (χ2) | Not reported | ||||
Sample: 3582 women aged 60 to 79 years without CVD. | Sensitivity/specificity: | Â | Â | ||
30%, 10 yrs risk threshold: | (10/95)% | (38/79)% | |||
Baseline data: 1999 to 2001 | 15%, 10 yrs risk threshold: | (44/74)% | (85/30)% | ||
Analysis: Weibull proportional hazards survival model. | Comparative analysis [16] | ||||
 | GP model vs. Framingham [20] | ||||
C-statistic: | 0.67 | 0.66 | |||
Calibration (χ2) | Not reported. | ||||
 | GP model vs. expanded Framingham [16]. | ||||
C-statistic: | 0.66 | 0.64 | |||
Calibration (χ2) | Not reported. |